)
Cogito Consulting publication, India 2061, is, as the name suggests, a projection of what India will be like as a country about 50 years from now. The year has not been picked randomly. It is meant to coincide with the centenary year of Cogito's parent, the Draftfcb + Ulka Group.
India 2061 is based on facts, at least to the extent that estimated numbers may be considered correct and the interpretation of these numbers by domain experts are applicable to various sectors. But it does get into the realm of fantasy especially when the contributors start speaking of mixed-sex cricket games being a reality in 50 years.
As the book's introduction rightly says, many of the book's current crop of readers may not be around to know how correctly or incorrectly the future was imagined. Then, that is the advantage all futuristic books enjoy.
From the outside though, the book's inspired predictions and buoyant numbers inspire more excitement than fear of the accompanying challenges. Consider this: the first piece of the book by Ajit Balakrishnan, founder and CEO of rediff.com, on management education opens with the assumption that all of India will be educated, life expectancy will be on par with the West and that the economy will touch $57 trillion. We are currently at around $1.7-1.8 trillion. So do the math.
The good news is that the contributors of the book envision a bright future for India not just in economic terms. They give us enough hope for a 'wholesome' future. For instance, Dr Ajit Ranade, chief economist, Aditya Birla Group, rules out the possibility of the break-up of India as a nation. He uses the example of the roll out of a common Goods and Services Tax which forced the individual states to give up their sovereignty in part for the greater good of the nation. Geet Sethi, nine-time world cue sports champion and founder of Olympic Gold Quest, predicts India will win 60-70 medals in Olympics 2060. That is more than 10 times our medal tally of six at the London Olympics 2012. Hasit Joshipura, senior vice-president, South Asia and MD India, Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals, imagines the possibility of replacing a faulty organ in pretty much the same way as a faulty car part is replaced in 2061.
Almost all the contributors have used the crutch of existing or immediate issues in their pieces, rather than imagining a whole new India in 2061. One piece that stands out is by election analyst, Dorab R Sopariwala. From start to finish, his piece reads like one written in 2061 and not as something imagined in 2013. He creates an entire backstory for the way Indian politics have shaped up in the future. Part gloomy, but mostly realistic, the piece exemplifies the spirit and vision of the book.
The book has touched upon some interesting sectors too, possibly often ignored by mainstream thinking, but no less important: ecology and environment, water resources, even society and how it will shape up in the future.
On the most apparent flipside, making predictions is a risky business, especially when you are talking about a developing nation as culturally diverse as India and a time frame so far removed.
In a world where breakthroughs in technology occur literally on a daily basis, is it advisable to even start time-leaping 50 years into the future? The different chapters come up with insights on expected lines, speaking mostly of challenges that the country will face in the distant future rather than opening up possibilities that entertain and make you think.
In a chapter on management education, the author talks of IIM governance being the benchmark for all management schools. The author failes to address what will be done to standardise management education in a country where everybody with deep pockets hopes to open a B school some day.
Avoid reading the next chapter on the Indian economy. You have seen all the figures mentioned there already. Too many numbers on population, GDP growth, urbanisation etc, but no clear way forward.
Ayaz Memon's piece on cricket has big dreams for women's participation in sports and in the Indian Premier League. It avoids many thorny issues of the day such as the role of state governments in nurturing local talent or whether politicians should be part of sports apex bodies.
In the chapter on the future of television, Puneet Goenka has mainly talked about the future of Zee, rather than addressing the future of the sector. Other than general entertainment channels, the chapter could have captured the significance of niche channels in the future considering how urban households in India are beginning to embrace multiple screens. The author has not addressed content challenges in 2061. Obviously the 'rags to riches' storyline of reality shows will lose appeal as people climb up the social ladder. While the author has acknowledged that technology like digital video recording will lead to a rise in deferred viewing of television, he has not prepared a roadmap on how content producers and broadcasters will change their business models to be relevant.
The book's strength lies in the profile of the contributors it has brought together. But it can just as easily be a handicap. Experience can sometimes shut fresh perspectives out and with it the ability to reimagine the world, possibly providing the reader with a boxed view of the future.
Then, experience can also liven up serious matters. In the chapter on Indian retail, BS Nagesh has used humour judiciously by mocking at how kiranas will be covered in protection plans and politicians will use their owners as vote banks. He explains how 'flexibility' will save all the existing businesses from dying by 2061.
To conclude, the book's editors have stated that India 2061 does not come with a closed shelf life and can be updated every few years. Hopefully the future editions will bring under their ambit an even more diverse spectrum of subjects as well as spend time in connecting the dots between the predictions and reality as it unfolds.
Overall, a good read and quite handy in understanding public discourse.
