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Wkly Tech Analysis: Markets may be volatile on RBI event

The pivot point as per the weekly chart is 19,250 for the next week. On the upside, the index can rally to 19,480-19,580 while on the downside can slip to 19,155-19,050

Rex Cano  |  Mumbai 

The grinded lower as the week progressed, although, the Sensex posted a fresh 19-month high during the week. The Sensex moved in a range of 419-odd points, wherein the BSE index touched a fresh 19-month high of 19,612, but then slipped to a low of 19,193. The BSE benchmark index finally ended with a loss of 107 points at 19,317.

Among the Sensex-30 stocks, BHEL slumped 7.5 per cent to Rs 225. NTPC and Tata Power plunged 4.5 per cent each to Rs 153 and Rs 105, respectively. Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, ONGC, Coal India, Hindustan Unilever and Maruti Suzuki were the other major losers.

On the other hand, Bajaj Auto zoomed 7.5 per cent to Rs 2,080. Jindal Steel surged over 5 per cent to Rs 431. Tata Motors, Sun Pharma and Hero MotoCorp were the other major gainers.

As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex seems to have given a marginal buy signal. But for the same to materialise, the index needs to sustain above 19,585. On the flip side, in case, the index is unable to cross 19,585, and trades consistently below 19,340, then we could see fresh downward pressure. On the downside, the Sensex can drop to 18,900-18,650.

As per the quarterly charts the index seems to have tested resistance around 19,630-odd levels mentioned in the last two weeks. The pivot point as per the weekly charts is 19,250 for the next week. On the upside, the index can rally to 19,480-19,580; while on the downside can slip to 19,155-19,050.

The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 126 points, the index from a high of 5,965, slipped to a low of 5,839, before settling with a loss of 29 points at 5,880.

The Nifty re-traced very much from the resistance zone of 5,950-5,980, mentioned last week. Also importantly, the index seems to have taken support around 5,830-odd levels for the second straight week.

This level now holds much more significance. As the index may attempt a fresh move on the upside. On its way up, the index may face some resistance in the range of 5,925-5,950, above which the index can rally to the 6,000-mark. Failure to sustain above 5,925, should be seen as a sign of caution.

On the downside, 5,830 should be keenly watched as break of 5,830, could trigger a fall to 5,750-odd levels.

The momentum oscillators on the daily charts are mostly in favour of the bears, barring the MACD. On the other hand, the momentum oscillators continue to favour the bulls on the weekly and the monthly charts.

To sum it up - the may remain volatile given the RBI policy review on December 18. The pivot point for Nifty next week would be 5,880. Sustained trade above 5,880, can help the index rise and test the resistance zone of 5,925-5,950, above which a rally to 6,000-odd levels looks likely. On the flip side, in case, the index trades consistently below 5,880, it could re-test the 5,830-odd support area. A break of 5,830, can trigger a fall to 5,750-odd levels.

First Published: Sun, December 16 2012. 00:10 IST
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