The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), in its latest update is indicating possibility of a good monsoon in India in coming months. The Bureau noted that although sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are still close to El Nino thresholds, the atmosphere is yet to show a consistent El Niño-like response. The Southern Oscillation Index, which typically drops when an El Nino pressure pattern develops across the equatorial Pacific, remains neutral and trade winds are currently close to normal strength near the equator.
While climate models forecast El Nino-like ocean temperatures during May, most models indicate a cooling through winter, with only three of eight models still forecasting El Nino-like warmth in spring. This indicates that if El Nino does develop it is likely to be short lived and weak. The bureau noted that in the Indian Ocean, most climate models indicate the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to be neutral for the remainder of the austral autumn, with the possibility of a positive IOD in winter or spring. A positive IOD typically means drier than average conditions for southern and central Australia during winter-spring.
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