Much before the pro-rural Union Budget was presented on February 29, political parties in Odisha had started their drive to woo voters for panchayat elections in the state, due in February next year. But given the disarray in the Opposition camp, it seems the result of the three-tier polls can be predicted a year in advance: the lion's share of seats for the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) with the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party scrambling for crumbs.
Ever since the BJD came to power in the state 16 years ago, led by Naveen Patnaik, son of Biju Patnaik, it has swept all elections, be it panchayat, Assembly or Lok Sabha. Incidentally, Biju Patnaik's birth centenary will be celebrated this year.
But more than the electoral exploits of the BJD, it is the failure of the Opposition to pose a serious challenge to the ruling party - despite introspection after each defeat - that is baffling.
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What could be the reason for this morass the Opposition finds itself in? Why are the people of the state not reposing confidence in them even as they protest the various omissions and commissions of the BJD government? Ask any Opposition leader this and pat comes the reply: "It is the freebies distributed by Naveen Patnaik - in the form of rice at Re 1 per kg and other perks for the poor - that have endeared him to the masses and earned votes for his party."
"If that was the case several governments in other states or the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance at the Centre would not have fallen in the last 16 years," says Rabi Das, a political analyst. "The beneficiaries of these schemes know that whoever comes to power will continue with these schemes. If they do not think so, they are not trusting the Opposition."
"The answer lies in the persona of leadership in the Opposition and the way those parties run and manage their outfits in the state," he adds.
For the Congress that has ruled Odisha for the longest period since Independence, it has played the role of the main Opposition party in the state for the last 16 years. But it has never been a united house, not even during the tenure of its most exalted state leader J B Patnaik, who served as chief minister for 14 years. The situation worsened when decisions were thrust upon the state party unit, often without gauging the mood and needs of the state - and a high command culture that has hindered new leadership and fomented resentment among the party's rank and file.
When Prasad Harichandan, the present Pradesh Congress Committee chief, took charge, he sought to unite the fragmented party by using "we", in place of "I" in his communications. But he could not walk the talk. Soon, senior leaders felt sidelined and the youth alienated when Harichandan scuttled a proposal to hold a massive congregation of young people in Bhubaneswar on issues of corruption in the state government. He was afraid the credit for the event would go to its architect, Lulu Mohapatra, perceived to be the most aggressive leader in the state Congress.
With the party's support base fast eroding - reflected in its vote share shrinking in each successive election - it will be a Herculean task for Harichandan to regroup the party and put up a commendable show in the panchayat polls, if not regain past glory.
The BJP, on the other hand, has a limited support base in Odisha. The party had its glorious moment when piggybacking on the popularity of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, it struck a seat-sharing pact with the BJD after the 2000 and 2004 Assembly elections. But its lack of strength was exposed after it broke up with the BJD on the eve of the 2009 elections when its vote share and seats in the state Assembly reduced drastically.
But Narendra Modi's elevation to the Prime Minister's post after the 2014 general elections generated some hope in the state BJP: It intended to cash in on his popularity to revive its fortunes. Aware of its limited support base - concentrated in the western part of the state - and resources, the party has tried to rope in some key leaders who were sidelined in other parties and belonging to coastal areas to bolster its strength in the state.
Besides, the accommodation of two ministers in the Modi Cabinet - although the party won only one Lok Sabha seat in the state in the last parliamentary elections - coupled with the launching of the Indian Oil refinery in Paradip and a generous allocation to the state in the recent Railway Budget, has given the party some ammunition to counter the BJD's constant clamour of "central negligence to Odisha".
However, like the Congress, the BJP suffers from groupism and lacks leaders of stature in the state. The first drawback came to the fore during the election of president of the state party unit. Some leading aspirants felt slighted as a powerful section of the party managed to install its choice to the post. To overcome the second drawback, there is a concerted attempt by this powerful group to prop up Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan as BJP's chief ministerial candidate for the Assembly elections in 2019. Their attempt gained some traction after Modi praised Pradhan profusely at the launch of the Paradip refinery. But can Pradhan match up to the popularity and charisma of Naveen Patnaik?
It is a long way to go for the BJP, now at the third spot in the state in terms of vote share - the Congress is in the second place - to think of forming the government. The outcome of the panchayat elections will likely provide hints about who stands where.
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
