With China and the US, the world's two largest greenhouse gases emitters, having formally ratified the global climate deal struck in Paris last December, the spotlight has shifted to India and the European Union to do the same and make this accord operational. Formal endorsement by these two will be a step closer to meeting the agreement's requirement of approval by at least 55 countries, accounting for a minimum of 55 per cent of total global emissions, to come into force. The EU is the third largest emitter and India the fourth. Though the final communique issued by the just-concluded G20 summit has skipped mentioning adherence to the December 2016 deadline for the ratification of the Paris pact, which suits India, it is unlikely to soften pressure on New Delhi from the US and China. India's bid to seek support for joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group as well as to get a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council can be among the issues used to nudge India to ratify. But New Delhi would do well to resist these pressures.
A fact that cannot be disregarded is that neither India nor the EU is as yet ready to endorse the Paris deal, though their support for it remains unflinching. The EU is sharply divided with some member countries wanting it to be preceded by necessary spadework to minimise its fallout on their domestic economy and job creation. For India, the task on hand is even tougher. That's because, unlike the EU, which has the technology and the resources to take decisive climate action, India is short on both counts. To achieve the target of slashing the emissions intensity of the economy by 33 to 35 per cent by 2030 (from the 2005 level), the country may need an estimated investment of $2.5 trillion. Worse still, India will have to cut down on fossil fuel consumption and introduce major technological changes in its manufacturing sector. This aside, India will also need to upgrade the technology used in its thermal power sector and by improving the quality of coal and the technology to trap and neutralise emissions from coal-run plants.
India has already put in place an impressive domestic action plan for climate-resilient development. Raising non-fossil fuel-based content of its overall energy consumption to 40 per cent by 2030 is part of this plan. With steady progress on the solar and wind energy fronts and the proposal to declare hydel power as renewable energy - which, for some inexplicable reasons, is not counted as clean power - meeting the overall green energy goals specified in the Paris deal do not seem beyond reach. However, the needed revamp of the coal-based power sector and the manufacturing industry may not be as easy - at least not without adequate external assistance, both in terms of technology and finance, neither of which is readily accessible. Developed countries seem reluctant to transfer, or even sell, the green manufacturing technologies to other countries. They are also reneging on their commitment to contribute liberally to the global green fund, mooted specifically to assist developing nations in clean economic development. Unless these prerequisites are taken care of through collective global effort, it is futile to expect the Paris accord to meet its noble objective of capping temperature rise to well below 2° Celsius, even if the requisite number of countries ratify it.
