It's the government, not RBI, which will decide when to start tapering

Experts need to look at things that have a bearing on the forthcoming elections, namely, food price inflation and the output gap, especially in the industrial sector, which is important for employment

Market wallahs are wondering when the RBI will start reducing liquidity, also known as tapering. Their pronouncements remind me of how in the 1950s, when Mao Zedong banned betting in China, the rural Chinese would bet on things like which crow would fly off first from the tree. Or, which hen would lay the first egg of the day. 

A favourite Chinese clue was the crow dropping its bomblet. The probability that it would fly off then was high, but the problem lay in seeing which crow had done it. 

Thus both risk and uncertainty were present. 

Without stretching the analogy too far,