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Of mice and men

Road to ruin is paved with market prophecies

Swaha Pattanaik 

Swaha Pattanaik The long-range forecast factory is in overdrive as the year draws to an end. For financial markets, it may all be an unfortunate, if obligatory, waste of time. In most cases, the 2016 outlook hinges on two unknowables. First, oil prices. Whether they rise or fall will shape global monetary policy and therefore what happens to bond, stock and currency markets. A drop further below $40 a barrel would mean more defaults on high-yield debt issued by energy firms and more chance of energy wealth funds being net sellers, not buyers, of assets. But, market forecasters have no idea what will ...

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First Published: Fri, December 11 2015. 21:15 IST