Staying watchful

Spike in Delhi Covid cases deserves attention

The pandemic may no longer be the major focus for policymakers at either the Union or state level in India, but that does not mean that it is no longer a danger. The recent increase in cases in the National Capital Territory of Delhi is a reminder that the government’s eye cannot be taken off the ball for too long. Although testing is no longer as institutionalised as it was earlier, the number of Covid-positive results has sharply increased, and the positivity rate has crossed 4 per cent. So far, this has not been accompanied by a concomitant increase in hospitalisation; as of Sunday, there were only 10 patients on oxygen support in the city, according to the official Delhi state health bulletin. Thus, there is no need to over-react. Some increase in cases was inevitable as a consequence of the lifting of most remaining pandemic-related restrictions. The hope is that this increase merely shifts the baseline infection level to slightly higher but still eminently manageable plateau, and does not grow exponentially.

It has been a year since the devastating second wave of the pandemic, driven by official carelessness and the delta variant. There is no evidence to suggest that an entirely new variant is behind these increases, though some Omicron sub-variants circulating in the West have been deemed to be even more infectious than Omicron itself. Yet since the second wave, not only has seropositivity increased considerably in cities like Delhi after a multitude of infections, but almost 90 per cent of the city has been double-jabbed as part of the vaccine programme. Yet the danger remains. Protection, whether through previous infections or through vaccinations, loses some of its effectiveness with time. Omicron, while milder than the delta variant, is nevertheless capable of causing great loss of life as its effect on Hong Kong has demonstrated. Thus, in spite of Delhi and other metropolitan cities being in a considerably more comfortable situation this April than they were last April in terms of protection against a wave, the government must nevertheless remain watchful. Case numbers and hospital statistics must be particularly carefully observed and extrapolated so that preventative measures can be taken well in advance of a wave hitting.

The government must introspect as to whether it has removed all restrictions too soon. It could have waited for a larger proportion of the national population to receive the complete course of vaccinations; India is still some distance short of 100 per cent coverage of those eligible. It could also have waited for a reasonable proportion of at-risk individuals, and those in places like Mumbai and Delhi that are hotspots in waves, to receive booster shots. Nevertheless, now that the decision has been taken to remove restrictions, the need for caution and anticipation is doubled. Governments at both the Union and state levels must remain conscious of the Covid threat as expressed in numbers, and be ready to increase testing again and reimpose restrictions as required. India, like the rest of the world, is preparing to live with Covid becoming endemic. But “living with Covid” and ignoring Covid are not the same things, and the government must not pretend they are.