Myanmar represents a new opportunity for human betterment in South Asia. How India engages with its eastern neighbour, where hope of a new democratic dawn has arisen, will significantly determine whether that opportunity will be realised — both for the highly deprived citizens of Myanmar and for those living in India’s north-east.
Two past instances involving neighbours are instructive. When Bangladesh was born in 1971, there was enormous hope for a better future. But soon popular resentment against India surfaced in Bangladesh because of the substandard goods that Indian traders sought to peddle there. In Afghanistan, valiant efforts by Indian engineers and workers to build much-needed infrastructure have come up against violent Taliban opposition and Pakistani designs.
In Myanmar, there is no Taliban, but some negative baggage. There is a history of throwing out market-dominating Indians and taking away their businesses. More recently, the democratic forces whose time is coming have not been happy with Indian attempts to make peace with the military rulers so as not to be left out.
Overall, India faces a level playing field, with an advantage and an opportunity. The advantage lies in the disadvantage faced by the Chinese. Among Myanmar’s people there is a sense of claustrophobia created by the overwhelming Chinese presence in the country. The Chinese have an enormous task ahead: creating a new equation with tomorrow’s democratic rulers. The critical challenge for India is to correctly focus its initiative so as to avoid pitfalls and distractions.
How not to be overbearing and the opportunity in deft handling are illustrated by the case of two rivers. The Chinese project to build the Myitsone dam across the Irrawaddy river was called off by the military rulers last year because of public opposition on account of the manifold damage that it was feared would follow from the project. Early this year, a multi-party delegation from Myanmar came to India to take part in a public dialogue on the implication of the Kaladan river project, which is of enormous value to India. Under it Sittwe port will be developed, the Kaladan will be deepened and made navigable for cargo traffic, the upriver port Paletwa will be developed, and a road link constructed to the Mizoram border.
The project will open up a short sea route, say from Kolkata-Haldia, to India’s land-locked north-east, which suffers from not being able to transit through Bangladesh. What the Myanmarese are asking is: what’s in it for us? They fear that deepening the river at and near the estuary will make it partly tidal, thus increasing the salinity in the adjoining areas and affecting rice and bean cultivation. Of course, if a river becomes navigable, everyone who can use it, Myanmarese and Indians, will benefit. But a credible cost-benefit analysis has to be sold to the Myanmarese.
What Myanmar needs foremost here and now is trained manpower, leaders who can see projects through successfully, and connectivity. What India needs right away is increased and easier border trade with its north-eastern states and dramatic logistical solutions that will physically bring the north-east closer to the rest of India.
But the greatest long-term attraction of Myanmar for India is access for Indian consumer and manufactured goods. (Big-ticket energy deals are high-profile and unpredictable.) Both foreign and domestic companies in India have been developing goods with the buying power of the emerging Indian middle class in mind, and as a result the Indian market is now home to an impressive array of affordable goods — small cars, mobile phones, medicines, fast-moving consumer goods and so on. In the short run, many Chinese manufactures score on price; but over time Indian manufactures represent good value for money. South Asia is the natural market for such goods, and Myanmar and Pakistan have till now been kept out of it by political design.
The best ambassadors for India, who can accompany these goods, are its better companies — which, by many yardsticks, are now world-class. Government policy can critically hinge on helping these companies dig roots in Myanmar, where they can garner good business for themselves and a good name for India, in a reversal of the Bangladesh episode.
In the local markets along the India-Myanmar border, the rupee has historically been a hard currency, riding on the back of Indian consumer non-durables. In the last year the Burmese currency appreciated 20 per cent against the US dollar in unofficial markets. It is now priced realistically officially, even as the Indian rupee has devalued by as much. This currency realignment lays the foundation for mutually beneficial trade, which is a win-win for both India and Myanmar.
