Symptoms of climate change are real

Mitigation policies should include adaptation measures

The resurgence of the monsoon at a time when it should normally have retreated from the north-west and the development of new rain-bearing systems in the oceans as the harbingers of more rain in the weeks to come are being viewed as clear symptoms of climate change. The meteorological studies have also confirmed that the schedule of the monsoon’s onset and withdrawal, as also the frequency of long dry spells and short bouts of intensive rain, has undergone a noticeable change. In fact, a significant rise in the incidence of heavy downpours and pre-monsoon heat waves in the Himalayan region has led to more landslides and a greater melting of snow. Such changes in the weather are indeed not confined to India alone but are being seen the world over, strengthening the notion that the efforts to mitigate global warming are not producing the desired results.

The combat against climate change must, therefore, now include measures to adapt to these and build resilience against freakish weather. In India, the overall monsoon rainfall this year, though about 7 per cent above normal, has been quite patchy over time and space, impeding crop sowing in some areas and adversely affecting standing crops in others. Consequently, the acreage under kharif crops has remained below par, though the late-season rainfall might prove beneficial for the ensuing rabi crops because of residual soil moisture. Globally, the impact of climate change is showing up in a higher frequency and more intensity of heat and cold waves, wet and dry periods, and melting of glaciers.

 

Another noticeable evidence of this is the persistence of La Nina (caused by cooler than normal waters in the tropical Pacific) for an unusually long term of three years. This is believed to be among the key factors responsible for high rainfall in the Indian Ocean region, especially the Indian sub-continent, and relatively dry climate in parts of the US and South America. It has already affected the production prospects of major crops like rice, wheat, corn and soybean in these areas, influencing their prices in the international market. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization is of the view that aberrant weather might lead to significant crop losses and exacerbate food security concern in several countries in Asia, Africa and the Pacific region. The unprecedented floods in Pakistan are also being attributed to the La Nina-induced exceptionally heavy rainfall there. The potential loss to the global economy on account of weather-related factors is reckoned by some economists at over $1 trillion by the end of 2023.

The repercussions of the spike in freakish weather events, especially the bouts of unusually heavy downpours, have begun to be felt in many urban areas as well. It has exposed the inherent flaws in the drainage systems and poor town planning in most cities, including Delhi, which witnessed an intense three-day wet spell between September 22 and 24, flooding the roads and causing traffic snarls. Since such events are likely to occur more often in future due to lack of any headway in mitigating climate change, the most obvious way out is to adapt to these changes and enhance preparedness to cope with them. Efforts also need to be stepped up to evolve crop varieties and agronomic practices capable of boosting the farm sector’s resilience against weather uncertainties.