The party that takes the lead in the first leg will stay one jump ahead of its rivals in the remaining six phases.
Traditionally, the Muslims of western UP have voted for the BSP while the Jats would stay with Ajit Singh’s RLD.
That social alliance was ruptured in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, when the Jats voted for the BJP and the Muslims were divided between the SP and BSP. The Congress’s performance was below par.
The BJP benefited from the polarisation, which took place because of the communal riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013, when the Congress accused the ruling SP, its current ally, of being in league with the BJP.
Though the RLD too was expected to be part of the SP-Congress alliance, the regional outfit backed out because it did not get as many seats to contest in as it wanted.
Sources said this could be a ploy to ensure that the Jats stayed divided between the RLD and the BJP, thus weakening the latter.
Besides, SP managers were worried that aligning with the RLD might have pushed the Muslim voters away from them into the BSP camp.
Both the SP-Congress alliance and the BSP are attacking the BJP for trying to polarise the voters of western UP. This was evident in the Rahul Gandhi-Akhilesh Yadav road show in Agra and BSP chief Mayawati’s rallies in the area. Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Meerut on Saturday and branded his political rivals as corrupt and casteist.
Mayawati is shooting for the Muslim vote in the entire state and has given the election ticket to 100 members of the community. This, coupled with her Dalit base, can tilt the balance in her favour, said BSP strategists.
The Muslims supported the SP in large numbers in the 2012 assembly polls. The Yadavs, the core supporters of the SP, were the other voter group that ensured the party’s victory.
The Akhilesh-Rahul team, apart from wooing the Muslims and Yadavs, hopes to win over the upper castes, including the Brahmins and Vaishyas.
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