India's new ambassador to China faces Himalayan challenge to ease ties

China has dominated much of Pradeep Ku­mar Rawat’s working life since he joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1990. Not only does he speak Mandarin fluently but has also spent almost 20 years studying China in one or the other capacity. He will move to Beijing from the Netherlands, but even du­ring his short tenure in the latter country, he made it a point to visit the South Asian & Tibetan Studies institute at Leiden Univ­e­r­sity. This is a big leap for a boy who started life believing he would become an engineer — Rawat studied mechanical engineering at the National Institute of Technology, Kur­ukshetra, from 1982 to ’87. When not addres­sing China, Rawat has served in Indonesia and Timor-Leste as ambassador. He taught briefly at the South Asian University, Delhi.

In Beijing, Rawat replaces Vikram Misri who had a three-year stint and possibly not a single day without challenges. In June last year, the Galwan clash that saw 20 Indian sol­diers killed was the culmination of border tension that had been building up for more than three years from the 73-day stand-off at Doklam in 2017. As joint secretary (East Asia) from 2014 to 2017, it was Rawat who saw the military build-up and also helped de­f­use it through negotiation. Bilateral ties are arguably at their lowest point. Rawat is in a position to judge because he’s seen better days as well: He was posted in Hong Kong, and then in Beijing, between 1992 and 1997 through the tumultuous days of the handing over of Hong Kong by Britain back to China, returning to work in the East Asia Division for three years. A second four-year term in Beijing in 2003, initially as counsellor and then as the deputy chief of mission, followed. This coincided with two breakthroughs on the boundary question with the appointment of special representatives in 2003 and an agreement on political para­meters and guiding principles in 2005.

He moved to Taiwan two years later, serving as head of the India-Taipei Association, the de facto ambassador, for the next four years. This makes his career profile quite unique: India’s envoys to Beijing have rare­ly, if ever, had the experience of serving in Taipei as well. India is cautiously scaling up its relations with Taiwan, much to the irr­itation of China. Earlier this year, two MPs — Meenakshi Lekhi and Rahul Kaswan — participated in the virtual swearing-in cere­m­ony of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. Although in the winter session of Parlia­m­ent, Minister of State for External Affairs V Muraleedharan made it clear that India does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and the two sides have only tr­a­de and people-to-people ties, even the most innocuous diplomatic moves are wat­ch­ed closely by Beijing, which views Taiwan as its province, while the island authorities maintain that it is an autonomous country.

Misri’s send-off and the reaction in Chinese media to Rawat’s appointment suggest the tide in Sino-Indian ties might be turning. They could be straws in the wind. But during a virtual farewell to Misri, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: “China and India are two ancient civilisations, two emerging econ­omies, and neighbours that cannot be mo­v­ed away. When we build mutual trust, even the Himalayas cannot stop us from friendly exchanges. Without mutual trust, it is diffic­ult to bring the two sides together, even if the­re are no mountains in the way. China and India should become partners and frien­ds. The important consensus that China and India should not be a threat to each other, but an opportunity for each other’s develo­p­ment, which reached by the leaders of the two countries, should continue to be adhered to [sic].” Misri responded: “Although there are still dark clouds in the sky, we have alr­e­ady seen the silver lining in the dark clouds.”

Local media is quite approving of India’s choice of envoy. While noting that individuals have a limited role in diplomacy, Wang Dehua, from the Shanghai Municipal Centre for International Studies, was quoted as saying that despite the impasse on border talks, Rawat’s appointment was a good sign. And there were others, too: Sino-Indian cooperation during the Glasgow climate change summit, specifically on coal; and India’s reticence over calls for an international investigation into the origins of Covid-19. China views this “as a big favour” by India, Wang was quoted as saying. And a new ambassador who was fluent in Mandarin would ease relations further.

Of course, this does not factor in the political and economic changes China is undergoing. Analysts say the resolution passed after the Sixth Plenum of the Communist Party’s 19th Central Committee (the full text came out on November 16) shows that Xi Jinping still faces constraints on his ability to impose sweeping or controversial policy changes and suggests that his influence is preeminent but not absolute, and consensus and factional compromise remain more important than commonly believed. Could this push Xi to more ultra-nationalist positions with one target being India? Rawat will have to steer the course.