India's obesity crisis is now an economic threat, warns Economic Survey

Economic Survey 2025-26 flags rising obesity and ultra-processed food intake as risks to productivity, healthcare spending and public finances, calling for policy action beyond consumer awareness

What India eats today could shape the country’s economy tomorrow. That is the clear warning from the Economic Survey 2025–26, which for the first time places obesity and unhealthy diets firmly in the economic risk category, not just the health column.

 

The Survey, tabled in Parliament on Thursday, flags the rapid rise in ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and growing obesity levels as a threat to productivity, healthcare spending and long-term public finances. It links these foods to obesity, diabetes, heart disease and even mental health disorders, arguing that the costs of inaction will be borne by both households and the state.

 

How big is the obesity problem in India?

According to recent National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data cited in the Survey, 24 per cent of Indian women and 23 per cent of men are overweight or obese. Even more worrying is the trend among children. Overweight prevalence in children under five rose from 2.1 per cent in 2015–16 to 3.4 per cent in 2019–21. In absolute numbers, 33 million children were obese in 2020, a figure projected to rise to 83 million by 2035.

 

A major driver, the Survey says, is India’s exploding market for ultra-processed foods. Retail sales of UPFs jumped from $0.9 billion in 2006 to nearly $38 billion in 2019, a 40-fold increase.

 

Citing global evidence, including The Lancet series on ultra-processed foods, the Survey notes that high UPF consumption is linked to multiple chronic diseases such as:

• Obesity
• Diabetes
• Heart disease
• Respiratory illnesses
• Mental health disorders

Why does the Survey call this a fiscal and productivity issue?

The Economic Survey explicitly warns that rising obesity and diet-related diseases will:

• Increase healthcare expenditure for households and the government
• Reduce workforce participation due to chronic illness
• Lower productivity through premature morbidity
• Create long-term fiscal stress as non-communicable disease-related care expands

In this context, obesity is framed as a human capital risk, with implications for India’s growth trajectory if preventive action is delayed.

Is consumer awareness enough to tackle the problem?

The Survey is clear that behaviour change alone will not be sufficient.

 

It notes that while public messaging around reducing sugar, fat and salt intake is important, dietary outcomes are shaped by food systems, marketing practices and availability, not just individual choice.

 

Improving diets, the Survey argues, will require coordinated policy responses across food production, regulation and marketing, alongside continued research and monitoring.

 

How big is India’s obesity problem?

 

24 per cent of women and 23 per cent of men in India are overweight or obese

Childhood overweight (under five years) has risen from 2.1 per cent in 2015–16 to 3.4 per cent in 2019–21

33 million children were obese in 2020, a figure projected to climb to 83 million by 2035

 

The Survey flags childhood obesity as a particularly worrying trend, with long-term implications for future workforce health.

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