Women's WC 2025: Will India qualify for semis if they lose vs New Zealand?

India are currently on the number four spot in the points table with 4 points to their name in 5 matches

The 2025 ICC Women’s World Cup is now heading towards the business end with the semifinals less than a week away. Three out of the four semifinal berths have been booked by defending champions Australia, England and South Africa, while co-hosts India and Sri Lanka, along with New Zealand, are fighting for the fourth and final spot in the semifinals.

 

Currently, India, Sri Lanka and New Zealand all have 4 points to their name. Sri Lanka have one more match left to play, while India and New Zealand will have two more, one of which is today against each other. If Harmanpreet-led Women in Blue secure a win today, they will have one leg in the semifinals with six points to their name along with a healthy net run rate. However, a loss against New Zealand will put their chances to probability, but they will stay in contention. 

 

 

So how can India book their place in the semifinals even after dropping points against the White Ferns today in Navi Mumbai? Take a look.

Secure a big win against Bangladesh

If India lose today’s game against New Zealand, they have to make sure they do not lose by a huge margin, which will keep their net run rate above both New Zealand and Sri Lanka, who have a horrible net run rate as of now. This way, India will end group stages with 6 points and force the final semifinalists to be decided on the basis of net run rate. However, this will not be easy as they will also want other results to go their way.

New Zealand should drop points in their final game

India, along with ensuring their win against Bangladesh, have to hope New Zealand lose their final league game against England on Sunday, which will keep the White Ferns stuck at just 6 points, forcing a net run rate calculation for the semifinal berth. However, if New Zealand beat England or the match gets washed away, New Zealand will be through with 8 or 7 points respectively, ending the hosts’ journey in the tournament at the league stage.

Sri Lanka also a challenge

India’s co-hosts in the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025, Sri Lanka, are also still in contention for a semifinal spot as they also have 4 points and could reach 6 points if they win their final league game against Pakistan. India will then have to hope that Sri Lanka either lose their game against Pakistan or the match gets washed away, which will deny Sri Lanka a chance to reach 6 points. However, if Sri Lanka win, then India have to pray that their winning margin is not big enough to overtake India in net run rate. If that happens, India will still qualify despite being tied on points with them.

What happens if India beat New Zealand today?

If India manage to beat New Zealand today, they will have six points to their name, which means a win in their final game against Bangladesh will take them to the semifinals irrespective of other results, with 8 points to their name. However, if they lose their last game, they then have to hope Sri Lanka and New Zealand also lose their last game or, if they win, they do not win by big margins as then India will qualify on the basis of net run rate.