Kerala Assembly elections 2026: Make or break for Left and Congress

It’s a do-or-die election for the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist), or CPI(M), and the principal Opposition party, the Congress, as Kerala goes to the polls on April 9.

 

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is a sort of litmus test regarding whether the party can build on its gains from the last Lok Sabha and the recently concluded local-body elections, and emerge as the third pole in Kerala’s politics by reopening its account in the Assembly.

 

For the CPI(M), a victory is essential to preserve its last bastion in the country. The CPI(M) has remained relevant in Kerala even as it was voted out of power in West Bengal and Tripura. The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) has won three of the four previous Assembly elections. Even in 2011, when it lost to the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), the margins were slender. However, the people of the state prefer to rally behind the Congress in Lok Sabha elections. The party seems to be confident of coming back to power despite the recent setback in the local-body elections.

 

“We are confident. If we can take the message of our good work to every household and every voter, we are very sure we will secure a third term. The eradication of extreme poverty has been a major achievement in the last 10 years. We were earlier behind in infrastructure development, and there, too, we have made discernible progress. The social security network has also been strengthened over the last ten years. Kerala is the only state without communal tensions, and people of different faiths live in total amity. In this, too, the LDF administration has played a key role,” said M A Baby, general secretary, CPI(M).

 

When asked about the drubbing in the recent local-body elections, Baby blamed a sense of complacency which had set in among the cadre.

 

“There was a disinformation campaign against our party, and there was a tactical understanding between the BJP and the UDF. They helped each other win the Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam corporations and make gains in other local bodies. We were also overconfident. The cadre believed that the new welfare measures announced by the state government in the runup to the election, along with our strong organisational network, would help us win easily. We have now become cautious and have warned our party colleagues that overconfidence would be fatal,” said Baby.

 

But some analysts consider the defeat in the panchayat elections a sign of anti-incumbency.

 

“The panchayat election results were particularly significant because the Left has traditionally performed strongly in local-body polls, losing only rarely in the past. This time, however, its poor showing suggested that anti-incumbency had become quite pronounced,” said M G Radhakrishnan, senior journalist and a political observer based in Thiruvananthapuram.

 

Kerala has traditionally alternated between Left- and Congress-led or backed coalitions. Political observers say that has kept both the coalitions on their toes and ensured that the CPI(M) did not suffer a decline like in West Bengal and Tripura.

 

“What was unusual was the LDF’s re-election in 2021. That result came in the context of efficient governance during two big crises — the 2018 floods and the pandemic. Historically, Kerala has seen rare moments when governments were rewarded for stability and administrative discipline. After the Emergency in India (1975-77), the government led by K Karunakaran returned to power partly because many people perceived the period as one of order — trains ran on time and institutions functioned smoothly — while information about excesses during the Emergency was limited due to censorship,” said J Prabhash, former pro-vice-chancellor, Kerala University, and a political analyst.

 

Apart from a slick campaign focused on its achievements, the CPI(M) is relying on the popularity of its incumbent MLAs to survive the anti-incumbency.

 

“One factor working in favour of the Left is the continuing popularity of many incumbent members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs). Several surveys indicate that sitting legislators of the LDF still enjoy considerable support in their constituencies. This is one reason the CPI(M) is going soft on its two-term norm and allowing many sitting MLAs to contest again. Voters often prefer a familiar representative who has delivered development in the constituency rather than switching to an untested candidate from the Opposition, which could help the Left blunt some of the anti-incumbency against the government,” said Radhakrishnan.

 

Radhakrishnan added that despite criticism of his style of functioning, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was widely perceived as a decisive leader who could deliver results. The absence of an equally strong leader on the Opposition side has reinforced that image.

 

Another unusual trend in this election is the presence of multiple Left dissidents who have joined hands with either the Congress or the BJP and are contesting elections.

 

“This is unusual in Kerala politics, where senior Left leaders rarely defect. Such dissidents could create ripple effects in a few districts even if they do not dramatically alter the overall electoral outcome,” said Prabhash.

 

But some analysts are of the view that the CPI(M) will come out unscathed from the current rebellion.

 

“Such developments are not entirely new in the history of the Left. Even prominent leaders like K R Gowri Amma and M V Raghavan had parted ways with the party in the past, yet those episodes did not seriously weaken the organisation. The current defections are unlikely to have a major impact either. Most of these leaders appear to have left not for ideological reasons but because of personal grouses, which makes their moves look more opportunistic than ideological. The party also has a strong organisational culture of closing ranks when faced with such exits,” said Radhakrishnan.

 

A defeat for the CPI(M) could lead to a churn and raise questions about the leadership of Vijayan if the party suffers a rout.

 

“If the Left were to lose the election, it would raise questions about Vijayan’s leadership. However, if the defeat is narrow, similar to what happened in 2011, it is unlikely to trigger a serious internal challenge. After 10 years in power, a narrow loss could still be interpreted as a relatively strong performance, and, in that scenario, Vijayan would probably continue to dominate the party and lead the Opposition,” said Radhakrishnan.

 

But for the Congress, the stakes are higher. Another defeat could lead to serious ruptures in the UDF.

 

“A third consecutive defeat could weaken the Congress as a viable opposition force in South India and accelerate political realignments that benefit the BJP. Because if this time also the Congress is out of power, then they are sure that a realignment of political forces will take place. Perhaps even the Muslim League may go over to the LDF camp. So that realignment, if the Muslim League also goes to the LDF camp, could bring about a polarisation between Hindus and the rest. And also, that power vacuum left by the Congress, they hope to occupy,” said Prabhash