 "Anura Kumara Dissanayake")
Known for pro-China leanings in the past, Marxist-leaning politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake on Monday officially took the oath of office as Sri Lanka's new President, in a development that was closely watched by India, which has significant geopolitical and security stakes in the Indian Ocean island nation.
Dissanayake victory in Saturday's presidential election, which saw him defeat several prominent candidates like incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, marks a significant shift in the Indian neighbour's political landscape. The election comes in the aftermath of mass protests that led to Gotabaya Rajapaksa's ousting in 2022.
On Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Dissanayake on his election victory and expressed optimism about collaborating with Sri Lanka to enhance the multifaceted cooperation between the two nations.
For his part, Dissanayake responded by thanking PM Modi for his "kind" words and support, stating that he shares the Indian leader's commitment to strengthening the relationship between the two nations. "Together, we can work towards enhancing cooperation for the benefit of our peoples and the entire region," Dissanayake posted on social media platform X on Monday, ahead of his inauguration.
The 55-year-old leader is the first Leftist President to head a Sri Lankan government.
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Does Dissanayake have 'pro-China' leanings?
Dissanayake is recognised by several Indian media reports for his pro-China leanings, with some of his past public statements and decisions not aligning with India's interests.
For example, Dissanayake has indicated ambivalence towards the implementation of the 13th Amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution, which grants powers to the Tamil minority -- a longstanding demand from New Delhi.
However, as noted by a Times of India report, apart from the pro-India leader of Opposition, Sajith Premadasa, no other major candidate in the presidential election had promised full implementation of the amendment.
Additionally, his party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), has consistently opposed the 1987 India-Sri Lanka Accord.
For his part, while advocating for constitutional changes, Dissanayake has reportedly stated that it is essential to implement provisions that establish peace and focus on the future rather than the past. "To do that, the Tamil people should be given a strong guarantee of rights in politics," he remarked earlier this year, according to Times of India, adding, "They must have the right to make decisions for themselves."
His party also has a history of anti-India and pro-China sentiments. Its founder, the late Rohana Wijeweera, had reportedly spoken against what he described as "Indian expansionism" in the 1980s and even portrayed India as an "enemy" of Sri Lankan interests.
Moreover, Dissanayake has also resisted any investigation into alleged war crimes during the civil war involving the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and Sri Lankan forces.
Why is he opposed to Adani project in Sri Lanka?
Dissanayake recently made headlines by announcing plans to cancel a 450 MW wind power project in Sri Lanka by Gautam Adani's Adani Group, which has faced difficulties due to environmental concerns.
According to reports, Dissanayake has argued that it undermines Sri Lanka's "energy sovereignty" and labelled the agreement as "corrupt".
However, according to the Times of India, the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce has emphasised to Dissanayake that the project could attract further investments into Sri Lanka.
What could Dissanayake's victory mean for Indian projects?
According to the same report, when speaking to Indian officials, Dissanayake has also expressed concerns regarding corruption and a lack of transparency in the implementation of certain Chinese flagship projects in Sri Lanka, including the Hambantota Port and the Colombo Port City projects.
New Delhi reportedly believes that while Dissanayake might seek to remodel some Indian projects in Sri Lanka, he is unlikely to outright revoke any of them. Speaking to the national daily, an unnamed official said that Dissanayake's focus on corruption and the need for transparency "aligns with India's stance against opaque lending practices".
The Indian mission in Colombo has reportedly maintained regular contact with Dissanayake.
Has there been a change in Dissanayake's stance?
Dissanayake has expressed a willingness to engage with New Delhi and maintain cordial relations, suggesting a potential shift in his stance and a desire to collaborate.
For example, during his poll campaign, Dissanayake assured that he would not permit anyone to use Sri Lanka's sea, land, and airspace to threaten India or regional stability -- a statement that would align with India's geopolitical and security priorities in the region and go some distance in assuaging apprehensions in New Delhi.
Dissanayake has also reportedly acknowledged India's role in supporting development efforts in Sri Lanka.
This could work in New Delhi's favour because among the major challenges Dissanayake will face as President will be steering Sri Lanka towards economic recovery and addressing pressing inflation issues.
While Dissanayake's victory could mean that India faces the challenge of engaging with a leader who was relatively unknown to New Delhi till recently, given India's over $4.5-billion economic and humanitarian assistance and support for Sri Lanka's debt restructuring efforts, which helped the island nation through the unprecedented economic crisis of 2022, New Delhi is in a stronger position to manage the situation compared to its experience with the recent crisis in Bangladesh.
New Delhi's recent outreach to Dissanayake, including hosting him earlier this year, will also likely help.
Did Dissanayake's India trip moderate his stance?
In February this year, Dissanayake visited New Delhi at the invitation of the Indian government.
While in India, he met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.
Dissanayake also expressed interest in replicating certain socio-economic successes witnessed by India in Sri Lanka and, following his trip, praised India's role in addressing Sri Lanka's economic crisis.
In interviews, Dissanayake stated that Sri Lanka and India share a long-standing bilateral relationship, adding that his party's intention is to strengthen these ties.
"We heavily rely on medicines imported from India, and during the last economic crisis, survival was impossible without the food aid provided by India," Dissanayake was quoted as saying. "While we may possess independent capabilities, robust international relations, particularly with India, are crucial for navigating the current crisis," he had added.
What are India's interests and concerns in Sri Lanka?
New Delhi would have reportedly preferred the continuity offered by the incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe or the pro-India leader of Opposition, Premadasa. This continuity, the Times of India report explains, would have enabled New Delhi to build upon the goodwill established through its recent support to Sri Lanka during a period of severe crisis.
However, India still adopted a non-partisan approach during the Sri Lanka elections.
For New Delhi, the key priorities in Sri Lanka are four-fold.
First, addressing the needs of the island nation's India-origin Tamil community, including the full implementation of the 1987 13th Amendment to the Constitution.
Second, expediting Indian connectivity, energy, and other projects in Sri lanka amid growing Chinese influence.
Third, adopting a more humane approach towards Indian fishermen.
And last but not least, that Sri Lanka, in accordance with a bilateral agreement, should not permit military use of its ports by China in a way that compromises India's security interests.
In conclusion, while there has been speculation that Dissanayake could seek closer ties with China, he is likely to maintain cordial relations with India, especially as he faces the challenge of ensuring Sri Lanka's economic recovery.
 "Anura Kumara Dissanayake")
 "Anura Kumara Dissanayake")
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 "Ajit Doval")
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