Australia uranium exports: Why it matters for India's 100 GW nuclear goal

India and Australia have finalised administrative arrangements for uranium exports, giving New Delhi another potential fuel source as it scales nuclear power capacity

India got a major boost in its target to achieve 100 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2047 after the government finalised the administrative arrangements needed to enable Australian uranium exports to the country. The announcement came on Thursday during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ongoing visit to Australia.

 

The two sides issued a joint statement on energy security, which said that Australian uranium will be supplied to India “for exclusively peaceful purposes” and under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, as provided for under the Australia-India Nuclear Cooperation Agreement of 2015. While the 2015 treaty made uranium trade between the countries legally possible, regular commercial supplies did not take off barring a small sample shipment in 2017.

 

 

Here’s decoding what the 2015 nuclear cooperation treaty was, why exports of Australian uranium did not pick up after it, and why the government is looking to procure more uranium now.

A brief history of India-Australia nuclear pact

For decades, India faced international nuclear isolation for pursuing its nuclear programme. India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which recognises only those countries as legitimate nuclear states that tested nuclear devices before January 1967. This means as per the NPT, only the US, China, Britain, France and Russia are legitimate nuclear powers.

 

India conducted its two nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998. Following the 1998 Pokhran-II test, India was hit with international technology sanctions and uranium import bans. This lasted until India signed the historic civil nuclear treaty with the US, also famously known as the 123 Agreement. Under the deal, India negotiated a limited safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by placing its civilian facilities under its monitoring.

 

The US also successfully lobbied the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) of countries, which includes Australia, to give India a unique waiver and engage in civilian nuclear trade.

 

The winds of change in India-Australia relations came with then Prime Minister John Howard’s visit to India in 2006. Three years later, however, a Labour government led by Kevin Rudd overturned the Howard government’s 2006 decision to allow uranium sale to India.

 

The momentum shifted again in 2011, when the then Prime Minister Julia Gillard said dropping the ban on uranium exports to India would be "beneficial to Australia's economy and jobs". The Australian Labor Party voted to overturn a ban on uranium sales to India and in 2014, the Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement was signed between the two countries. It came into force in November 2015.

Why did India not receive much Australian uranium despite the deal?

While the 2015 agreement allowed Australia to export uranium to India, it did not ensure regular shipments. For exports to begin smoothly, both sides also needed administrative arrangements to set procedures for safeguards and nuclear cooperation.

 

Concerns remained on the Australian side about an operating mechanism to account for its supplied uranium. Australia’s uranium export policy says that IAEA safeguards apply to India’s civil nuclear facilities, and these are the only Indian facilities that can use Australian uranium.

 

In 2015, Australian parliamentary scrutiny of the deal flagged several sensitive issues, including accounting for Australian nuclear material, the mixing of safeguarded and unsafeguarded material in Indian nuclear facilities, reprocessing, and enrichment.

 

Australia’s parliamentary review also noted that uranium sales to India raised significant non-proliferation and nuclear safety questions because India was a nuclear-armed state outside the NPT.

 

Another reason was commercial. For a uranium exporter, the real opportunity depends on operating reactors, not just announced government treaties. India’s nuclear share in electricity remained small, and several planned reactors moved slowly because of construction, financing, liability and land-related constraints.

 

According to the Department of Atomic Energy, India’s operational nuclear capacity has grown significantly in the last decade, from 4.78 GW in 2014 to 8.78 GW in 2026. However, it accounts for barely over 3 per cent of India's total power generation. Compare this to solar's installed capacity, which rose from about 7.12 GW at the end of FY16 to 162.15 GW by June 30, 2026.

 

A shipment of Australian uranium arrived in India in 2017 which, according to then Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, was a "small sample" for "testing" as part of “ongoing commercial negotiations”. That was the first and last shipment of Australian uranium India received.

 

India did not wait for Australian uranium and continued to source from other countries. In a March 2025 reply in the Lok Sabha, the Department of Atomic Energy said India had imported 999.82 MTU from JSC NAC Kazatomprom of Kazakhstan and 1,000.479 MTU from Cameco of Canada in 2020-21, besides 350 MTU from Uzbekistan’s Navoiyuran State Company in 2023-24 and 250 MTU in 2024-25.

What has changed in 2026?

The 2026 joint statement changes the status of the uranium arrangement from an enabling legal framework to an operational one. By finalising the administrative arrangements, both sides have cleared the procedural safeguards framework needed for Australian uranium exports to India under the 2015 agreement.

 

The timing matters for India as the electricity demand is testing new highs. Peak power demand touched an all-time high of 270.82 GW on May 21 this year, crossing the 270 GW mark for the first time, as heatwaves pushed up the use of air-conditioners and cooling appliances.

 

Renewables helped meet part of this surge, but they also showed the limits of India’s current power mix. During the May record peak, renewable energy contributed 34 per cent to peak demand, while solar alone contributed 22 per cent. However, solar mainly met the daytime demand due to storage issues.

 

This is where nuclear power becomes strategically important. Unlike solar, it can be backed by large-scale storage and lessen the load on thermal power during night. The growing demand and infrastructure for nuclear power necessitate fuel diversification, making Australian uranium imports critical.

 

The policy backdrop has also changed. When the Australia-India nuclear pact was signed in 2014, India’s nuclear sector was still relatively small, with 4.78 GW of installed capacity and only a limited number of safeguarded reactors eligible to use imported uranium. Today, India has a larger operating base, an indigenous 700 MW reactor fleet, and 24 operating reactors.

 

India has set a target of 100 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2047. The Union Budget for 2025-26 announced a Nuclear Energy Mission for Viksit Bharat with a ₹20,000 crore outlay for research and development of small modular reactors (SMRs). The government has said at least five indigenously developed SMRs are targeted to be operationalised by 2033.

 

The government has also opened the nuclear sector for private players to boost investment in infrastructure. The SHANTI Act, which received presidential assent on December 21, 2025, allows private-sector participation in setting up nuclear facilities and in activities related to the production, use and disposal of nuclear energy, subject to a licence from the central government and safety authorisation from the regulatory board.

 

PM Modi also highlighted this point during the India-Australia CEO Forum in Melbourne: "A few months ago, India opened up the nuclear sector to private companies through the SHANTI Act. We have set a target of 100 Gw of nuclear energy by 2047. Australia’s vast uranium reserves are directly linked to India’s nuclear journey. This presents a historic opportunity for us to deepen cooperation in this sector."

 

India now has a larger operating fleet, a bigger reactor pipeline, and a formal 2047 nuclear target. Making the 2015 nuclear pact with Australia operational gives New Delhi another potential uranium source as it prepares for a larger civilian nuclear programme.