Gold up 200% since 2019: How buyers are going light this Akshaya Tritiya

Gold has delivered over 30% returns since May 2024, with prices nearing Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams ahead of Akshaya Tritiya 2025

Gold has glittered brightly in investor portfolios over the past year, delivering returns exceeding 30% since May 10, 2024. As Akshaya Tritiya approaches on April 30, the yellow metal's allure remains strong, though high prices are prompting a shift in consumer behavior.

 

Record-Breaking Prices

On April 22, 2025, gold prices briefly surpassed Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams for the first time, driven by global economic uncertainties and persistent inflationary pressures. As of April 24, 2025, 22K gold prices at major retailers were as follows:​

 

Malabar Gold: Rs 7,945 per gram

 

Joyalukkas: Rs 7,945 per gram

 

Kalyan Jewellers: Rs 7,945 per gram

 

 

Tanishq: Rs 7,990 per gram ​

 

This surge marks a 30 per cent increase from Rs 73,240 per 10 grams during the last Akshaya Tritiya and a 200% rise from Rs 31,729 per 10 grams in 2019, shows an analysis by Ventura, an investment platform. 

 

Past Akshaya Tritiya Record 

 

"Geographically the Indian consumer demand for Gold on Akshaya Tritiya is more concentrated from South India contributing 40% followed by West 25%, East 20% and North 10%.  Consumers in North India focuses more on Dhanteras festival for Gold buying.

 

Record-high gold prices are likely to lead to a decrease in gold sales volume this Akshaya Tritiya, but overall revenue may remain comparable to last year," noted the Ventura report.

 

Changing Consumer Behavior

The high prices are influencing consumer purchasing patterns. Many families planning weddings in May, June, and July are opting for lighter jewelry, purchasing 1 to 1.5 sovereigns instead of the traditional 2 sovereigns. Additionally, there's a growing preference for 14K and 18K gold, which offer a balance between affordability and durability.​

 

To accommodate these changes, jewelers are offering promotional deals, advance bookings, and exchange schemes. These initiatives aim to attract customers despite the elevated prices.

 

"Due to the record high gold prices, consumers on wedding requirements prefer exchanging cash as compliments, gifts instead of gold. They choose the monthly installment plans offered by jewelers to buy gold. Jewelers exchange offers allows customers to upgrade newer designs to their old gold jewelry. 14Kt and 18Kt are few purity options which customers are aware while meeting the durability and style against affordability, thus shifting towards lighter jewelry. Increased interest in studded jewelry, natural diamonds, and gemstone pieces is also being observed," said the Ventura report.

 

Meanwhile there is an increased focus on investment. Consumers continue to invest in gold bars and coins as a safe long-term asset, even with rising prices. Jewelry comes only on need-based compulsive buying or festive and sentimental purpose. 

 

A Tradition Rooted in Prosperity

Akshaya Tritiya, observed this year from the evening of April 29 (5:31 PM) to the afternoon of April 30 (2:12 PM), holds deep cultural significance. Believed to bring unending prosperity and success, the festival is considered highly auspicious for financial decisions, new beginnings, and particularly gold purchases. The Puja Mahurat, or ideal time for making purchases and offering prayers, falls on April 30 from 5:40 AM to 12:18 PM.

 

Traditionally, buying gold on this day is more than an investment—it’s a symbolic act of welcoming wealth and fortune. This cultural sentiment is especially pronounced in southern India, which accounts for 40% of the country’s Akshaya Tritiya gold demand, followed by the western (25%), eastern (20%), and northern regions (10%). In contrast, consumers in North India tend to favor gold purchases during Dhanteras.

 

High Prices May Temper Volume, Not Revenue

Despite the spiritual fervor and the bullish returns on gold, this year’s record-high prices are expected to put a lid on the volume of gold sales. Industry experts anticipate a dip in overall quantity purchased, particularly in the lower and middle-income segments, where consumers may either reduce their purchase size or shift toward lighter jewelry and coins.

 

However, jewelers remain optimistic. “Even if volumes decline slightly, the elevated price levels could keep overall revenue on par with last year,” said a Mumbai-based bullion dealer. “Many buyers may still make symbolic purchases to honor tradition, even if it’s a gram or two.”

 

Investors too are eyeing gold with renewed interest, especially as economic uncertainties persist globally. For those who bought gold around last Akshaya Tritiya or earlier, the returns have been golden indeed.

 

"Customers do expect a correction and hoping to see shedding of the 5 – 8% premium in gold price, although the symbolic token purchases during this festive would be done. Post the festival during the off-season April-July buying is expected as demand is lower, but jewelers offer discounts to attract customers and clear stocks. Hence a bargain hunting during this period as gold prices also tend to be lower as there is less pressure from seasonal buying," noted Ventura. 

 

Future Price Perspective

Looking further ahead, Ventura sees considerable upside potential should geopolitical tensions escalate or global economic conditions deteriorate. US Federal rate cut actions could also be the upside trigger. Gold prices could rally significantly, possibly reaching $3,600–$3,700 per ounce, or ₹1,01,000–₹1,04,000 per 10 grams by next Akshaya Tritiya, which falls on April 19, 2026. These projections reflect gold’s enduring appeal as a safe haven in times of heightened uncertainty.

 

"However, the path upward is not without its risks. If the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts decisions gets prolonged,  slowdown in central bank purchases or an unexpectedly strong U.S. economic performance it could lead to a temporary price correction, with gold retreating to $3,000–$2,900 per ounce, or ₹90,000–₹87,000 per 10 grams. From present levels tillDecember 2025 gold is likely to oscillate, remain volatile and unsteady. These projections are between $2900 and $3300 an ounce or Rs.86000 and Rs.96000 per 10 grams," said the report.