Year-ender 2025: What's next for Bitcoin in 2026? Experts weigh in

Bitcoin in 2026: Experts say volatility is normal, but disciplined investors could see steady gains

As 2025 comes to a close, Bitcoin continues one of the most talked-about assets. After a year of sharp rallies and sudden corrections, many are asking, what will 2026 hold for the cryptocurrency? With global liquidity, regulatory shifts, and institutional adoption shaping markets, experts suggest that both opportunities and volatility lie ahead.

What drives Bitcoin’s price in 2026?

According to Sathvik Vishwanath, co-founder & chief executive officer of Unocoin, “Bitcoin’s 2026 path will hinge on global liquidity, especially if major central banks ease after the tight 2024-25 cycle. Regulatory clarity, such as friendlier ETF laws or custody norms, can boost institutional buying, while hostile rules can suppress flows.”

 

 

Edul Patel, chief executive officer of Mudrex, adds that quantitative easing, growing corporate adoption, and Bitcoin’s changing perception as a store of value create a favourable environment for bullish momentum.

 

“After reclaiming the $90,000-mark post-correction, BTC is poised to continue upward next year. Institutional inflows and corporate adoption are accelerating, with public companies now holding over 1 million BTC,” he says.

 

Ashish Singhal, co-founder of CoinSwitch, points out that global frameworks like MiCA and evolving regulations in India will further integrate Bitcoin into mainstream finance.

 

He notes, “Spot Bitcoin ETFs already hold over $50 billion in institutional assets. Regulatory and tax developments in India are likely to follow, supporting adoption.”

 

Parth Srivastava, head of Quant at 9Point Capital, emphasises the role of technical support levels, noting that $75,000 needs to hold and $100,000 would signal renewed optimism.

 

“Liquidity will remain key. If central banks ease and ETF inflows stay steady, Bitcoin can rerate fast. If liquidity dries up, support levels will be tested,” he adds.

 

Understanding volatility

Experts stress that volatility is structural, not a sign of instability.

 

Vishwanath explains, “A Rs 1 lakh investment in 2025 could range between Rs 60,000 and Rs 1.5 lakh in 2026 under high volatility, and between Rs 80,000 and Rs 1.25 lakh under moderate swings.”

 

Srivastava reassures investors that “Bitcoin ends the year roughly where it started, noisy, but not broken. Historically, it has never had two consecutive red years. Swings are part of how Bitcoin moves.”

 

Patel recommends a disciplined approach for Indian retail investors.

 

“Invest small amounts regularly in an SIP format. This helps take advantage of volatility and generates better risk-adjusted returns.”

 

Singhal adds, “Price swings are increasingly tied to macro and liquidity dynamics rather than speculation. A long-term perspective is essential.”

 

Allocation strategies

Experts suggest sizing Bitcoin exposure to risk appetite:

 

Conservative: 2-5 per cent of portfolio

 

Moderate: 5-10 per cent, with rebalancing

 

Aggressive: 10-20 per cent, ideally systematic purchases

 

Patel highlights the benefits of even small allocations. 

“A traditional 50:40:10 portfolio of equity, debt and cash grew $100 to $186.4 in five years since 2018. Replacing 5 per cent cash with Bitcoin lifted it to $240.8, boosting CAGR from 12.34 per cent to 20.11 per cent.”

 

Key risks to monitor

Experts urge investors to track:

• Regulatory tightening globally
• Global liquidity shocks or renewed rate hikes
• Post-halving miner stress leading to asset sell-offs
• Large institutional rebalancing and macro correlations

Vishwanath cautions, “For an Indian investor with Rs 1 lakh, such events can compress value by 20–40 per cent. Monitoring global monetary policy, ETF flows, and mining economics is essential.”

 

Outlook

2026 is expected to offer growth opportunities for disciplined investors, but volatility and macro risks will remain. Regular investing, measured allocations, and keeping an eye on global trends can help Indian investors navigate the year ahead with confidence.