$100,000 H-1B fee had little impact on visa numbers: Why analysts say so

A new $100,000 H-1B visa fee has split experts, with some saying it leaves numbers unchanged while others warn it could limit new foreign entrants to the US

The $100,000 fee for H-1B visa petitions has sparked a fresh debate, with analysts divided over whether it has reduced visa numbers or simply changed who receives them.

 

A report by the Center for Immigration Studies, published on Monday, said the fee has had little effect on overall H-1B numbers because many beneficiaries are already in the United States.

 

What the report says

 

The fee, introduced in September 2025, applies to candidates outside the United States at the time of filing, not to those already in the country on another visa.

 

John Miano, who authored the report, said a large share of H-1B recipients are already present in the US and therefore not affected by the fee.

   

He wrote, “Assuming 54 per cent of the potential beneficiaries were already in the US, that means over 180,000 of the workers were already in the US. Even without playing games with the H-1B process, like moving people into the US temporarily on some other visa, there are more than twice as many aliens entering the lottery who are exempt from the $100,000 fee (i.e., already in the US) as there are visa slots.”

 

The report cited 2024 data showing that 54 per cent of H-1B beneficiaries were already in the US on another status.

 

Miano argued that the annual cap of 85,000 visas remains unchanged, and therefore the fee does not reduce the number of approvals.

 

He said, “There will be 85,000 quota visas this year, as there were last year and the year before. The $100,000 fee had no effect on that number. The Trump administration did not hand out or approve more visas. The odds of winning the lottery simply improved this year; the approval rate is up, not the number of approvals.”

 

He added that the impact on cap-exempt visas, such as those issued to universities and government research institutions, remains unclear. In FY 2024, about 56,000 such visas were granted. 

 

Counter view from Cato Institute

 

The findings drew criticism from the Cato Institute, where immigration analyst David J Bier said the argument misses how the system works in practice.

 

Bier said that even if some applicants are already in the US, restricting new entrants still affects overall visa access.

 

He wrote, “And even if we focus on grants of status + visas, the fee will still cut visas on net by reducing issuances to 50K cap-exempt workers.”

 

He added that when people already in the US shift to H-1B status, they are not new arrivals. That, he said, means fewer foreign workers are able to enter the country, which could affect labour supply. 

 

Why the disagreement matters

 

The disagreement centres on how H-1B numbers are counted and what counts as a reduction.

 

Cap stays fixed: The annual H-1B quota remains 85,000 visas

Status vs entry: Many recipients already in the US only change their visa status

New applicants: The fee mainly affects those applying from outside the US

Cap-exempt visas: Universities and research institutions fall outside the main quota