It's return of the natives as Indian techies' American dream fades

The flow of Indian technology professionals to the US is slowing, while the number returning to India is rising amid visa uncertainty, weaker hiring, and shifts in the global tech job market

Recent changes to labour rules in the US, particularly those related to the H-1B visa programme, along with sluggish information technology (IT) spending, are affecting the flow of talent to the country. The scale and pattern of technology (tech) talent movement between India and the US have also changed rapidly over the past three years, with the number of engineers returning to India rising steadily.

 

A report by Xpheno suggests that the volume of returnees is expected to exceed previous years. Data from the specialist staffing firm show that the number of tech professionals returning to India year-to-date (YTD) has touched 7,300. The number of returnees has been rising year after year. In 2025, the figure hit a high of 15,100, compared to 9,800 in 2024.

   

At the same time, the number of professionals moving to the US has been declining. YTD, around 9,100 people moved to the US. In 2025, about 21,200 professionals went to the US, up from 17,600 in 2024. 

 

The gap in the net talent balance — exits minus returnees — has been shrinking since 2023, indicating that the decades-old dream of tech jobs in the US has been dented by changes in the global job market. The tech sector has been in flux as artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI (GenAI) reshape hiring patterns, with companies cutting thousands of jobs to invest more in tech than human capital. Some of the companies that have undertaken such measures include Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Walmart, and Standard Chartered Bank.

 

“Certain pools of tech talent on H-1B visas in the US are staring at the risk of repatriating to India following recent developments. Considering the current dynamics and demand trends in the Indian job market, this is definitely not the best time for US-settled H-1B talent to return to India,” said Kamal Karanth, cofounder of Xpheno.

 

The administration of US President Donald Trump has maintained that it wants to reduce low-paying H-1B jobs, which are largely occupied by Indians, and prioritise American workers instead. It has imposed a fee of $100,000 on all new H-1B visa applications while giving preference to applicants with advanced degrees and higher salaries, in a bid to curb the inflow of low-wage and low-skilled foreign workers.

The move has led to a sharp drop in visa registrations, which slumped 38 per cent to 211,600 for the 2027 financial year from 343,981 a year earlier.

 

In another move, the administration said foreign nationals seeking lawful permanent residence should generally apply from outside the US through consular processing rather than adjust their status within the country. The change could add a fresh layer of uncertainty for thousands of Indian engineers who have waited years for their work visas to pave the way for coveted green cards.

 

Karanth added that the scale and pattern of tech talent movement between India and the US have shifted rapidly over the past three years. “While two-way movement of talent has been recorded every year, it is critical to observe the rise in the number of returnees over the years. Talent corridor movement is now on a trajectory where returnee volumes could exceed previous years’ counts and further narrow the net talent balance. It would not be surprising if the recent H-1B measures cause the number of returnees to surpass outbound tech talent to the US this year,” he said.

 

The reverse migration trend comes at a time when India’s active job market demand outlook has hit a 28-month low in June, with 93,000 open roles, down 17 per cent from 112,000 a year earlier. This comes as the IT industry continues to grapple with sluggish growth and macroeconomic headwinds that have curbed bulk hiring.

 

Demand from the IT services segment — the largest consumer of tech talent — has dropped 16 per cent sequentially, with active openings at 36,000. That is down 31 per cent compared to last year. Most hiring in the technology sector continues to be driven by global capability centres (GCCs). Overall GCC demand volume has seen a sharp 31 per cent rise in active tech hiring over the same period. Business Standard reported last month that GCCs outpaced IT services hiring for the third consecutive year, and the trend is expected to continue this year as well.

 

Since the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021, the Indian technology sector has not seen a period of stability lasting beyond a quarter. The industry continues to be periodically disrupted by global developments and changes in key client markets. This is reflected in the declining trajectory of hiring activity seen so far this year.