US legal immigration drops faster than illegal entries under Trump: Report

Legal immigration to the US has slowed sharply under Donald Trump, with cuts to family, student and H-1B visas outpacing declines in illegal entries

In his February State of the Union address, Donald Trump said that even as his administration had reduced unauthorised border crossings, “We will always allow people to come in legally, people that will love our country and will work hard to maintain our country.”

 

Yet, even as crossings declined, policy changes over the past year have tightened several legal immigration routes, slowing the entry of workers, students and family members.

 

“As expected, President Trump has reduced illegal entries since Inauguration Day in January 2025, but as I predicted, his administration has reduced legal entries far more,” wrote David J Bier, Director at the Cato Institute in a report.

   

“Illegal entries had already fallen before he took office, and while they have fallen further, the declines in legal immigration far surpass the declines in illegal entries. The falloff in illegal immigration continued a prior trend, while the cuts in legal immigration broke the trend of rising legal immigration from 2021 to 2024,” he wrote.

 

Measures taken against legal immigration

 

• Travel bans and restrictions imposed on nationals of 39 countries

• Pauses in permanent visa issuance affecting 75 countries

• New vetting guidelines leading to a drop in student visa issuance

• A $100,000 application fee for H-1B high-skilled workers

• Diversion of staff from processing immigration applications to re-vetting recipients

 

According to Bier, these measures have affected one in five immigrant visa applicants.

 

Family visas fall sharply

 

Visas for fiancé(e)s and spouses of US citizens have declined steeply.

 

By summer 2025, they were down by at least half compared to December 2024, and by 65 per cent compared to the same period in 2024. A 40-country ban introduced in January 2026 is expected to exclude around 3,000 such visas annually.

 

Because a broader 75-country immigrant visa restriction does not apply to fiancé(e) visas, some applicants may attempt to switch routes. However, restarting the process is costly and time-consuming, making immediate transitions unlikely.

 

Student visa issuance drops

 

Student visa numbers have also fallen.

 

Comparing peak issuance periods, visas dropped by 40 per cent between summer 2024 and summer 2025.

 

In January 2025, an executive order led to the cancellation of F-1 status and revocation of between 1,700 and 4,500 student visas between January and April. Several students were also detained over political speech.

 

In May, the administration attempted to stop Harvard University from enrolling international students, though courts blocked the move.

 

The US Department of State also paused student visa issuance for three weeks during peak season. In June, an executive order banned student visas from 19 countries, affecting about 10,188 students annually, before expanding the ban to 40 countries in December, affecting around 23,000 students each year.

 

H-1B visa issuance declines

 

H-1B visa issuance had already been trending lower in 2025 compared to 2024.

 

In September 2025, a $100,000 fee was introduced for employers petitioning for H-1B workers outside the US. In FY 2024, 65,000 such approvals were recorded, with 219,659 visas issued abroad, suggesting about 30 per cent of applicants were affected.

 

A court filing cited by the State Department indicated that the fee led to an 87 per cent drop in petitions for workers outside the US. Overall, current H-1B visa issuance is estimated to be down by about a quarter.

 

At the state level, Ron DeSantis directed Florida’s public university system to pause H-1B sponsorship for the rest of 2026. Greg Abbott ordered state agencies and public universities in Texas to pause sponsorship through May 2027. 

 

Legal entry cuts outpace illegal entry decline

 

Data from the Migration Policy Institute and the Cato Institute suggest that legal entry reductions are now about 2.5 times higher than the decline in illegal entries, estimated at 132,000 compared to 50,000.

 

Among total immigration cuts, 72 per cent were from legal pathways.

 

“This comparison is misleading in favor of illegal entries because most illegal crossers caught by Border Patrol were not being released into the United States in December 2024,” Bier wrote.

 

“It also assumes that 100% of the cuts to the employment- and family-based categories from banned countries result in increases in those categories from other countries. These are just the major visa categories. If we included every category, the cuts would be more severe. It also does not include all the people who are already in the United States and are banned from receiving legal status or converting from temporary to permanent status,” he added.

 

Focus shifts to selective pathways

 

According to Julia Gelatt, Associate Director at the Migration Policy Institute’s US Immigration Policy Programme, some routes are being expanded even as others contract.

 

“While these actions have stymied many forms of legal immigration, the administration is facilitating entry through selected streams at the high- and low-income ends,” she wrote.

 

Applications have opened for a “gold card” programme offering permanent residence to individuals who pledge to contribute $1 million to the government. 

 

At the same time, seasonal worker routes have been expanded. The administration has lowered wage requirements for H-2A agricultural workers, streamlined application processes, restored interview waivers for renewals, and expanded the number of H-2B visas available.

 

“These cuts to legal immigration are harming US citizens seeking to reunite with their spouses, fiancés, children, and other relatives. They are also undermining US prosperity and increasing the US deficit. But they also illustrate the central misconception about the Trump administration’s immigration agenda,” Bier wrote.