Bajaj Auto Q4 preview: Volume-led growth to drive earnings; margins mixed

Bajaj Auto Q4FY26 results preview:   Two- and three-wheeler manufacturer Bajaj Auto is likely to announce its financial results for the quarter (Q4FY26) as well as for the full year ended March 31, 2026 (FY26) on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. 

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard expect Bajaj Auto to report strong revenue growth in Q4FY26, driven by healthy volume expansion, favourable currency movement, and an improved product mix.\ 

The Street overall expects the company’s revenue to rise around 27–28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and about 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), supported by a 24 per cent Y-o-Y increase in overall volumes, a stronger export mix aided by rupee depreciation, and gains from premiumisation in motorcycles. Average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to improve, supported by price hikes and a higher share of premium models. 

 

Margins are expected to show a mixed trend. While some brokerages foresee a modest improvement of up to 46 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y, others expect sequential moderation of around 14–20 bps, mainly due to higher raw material, freight, and production costs. This is likely to be partly offset by operating leverage, favourable forex realisations, and a richer product mix. 

Key factors to watch in Q4FY26 include the sustainability of export momentum, currency-led benefits, demand trends in premium motorcycles, and the impact of input cost pressures.  READ | Hero MotoCorp Q4 preview: Street sees healthy growth; margins in focus

Meanwhile, here’s what analysts expect from Bajaj Auto Q4 results:

Axis Direct

The brokerage expects total revenues to increase by around 27 per cent Y-o-Y and 1 per cent Q-o-Q, driven by a 24 per cent Y-o-Y growth in volumes, rupee depreciation benefits supporting exports, and improvement in ASPs due to a better product mix. 

According to the brokerage, the Ebitda margins are expected to improve by around 46 bps Y-o-Y but decline 14 bps Q-o-Q, supported by stronger export volumes and a richer product mix, partly offset by higher raw material costs. 

Estimates: Revenue at ₹15,422 crore (up 27 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹12,148 crore in Q4FY25); Ebitda at ₹3,181 crore (up 29.8 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹2,451 crore in Q4FY25); Ebitda margin at 20.6 per cent (up 46 bps from 20.2 per cent); PAT at ₹2,585 crore (up 26.1 per cent from ₹2,049 crore).

HDFC Securities

The brokerage expects realisations to improve 2.0 per cent Q-o-Q, driven by price hikes, higher forex realisations, and a higher mix of premium motorcycles, though this may be partially offset by lower exports and 3W mix. 

Ebitda margin is expected to decline 20 bps Q-o-Q, led by higher raw material, production, and freight costs, though partly offset by higher operating leverage and favourable forex realisations, said HDFC Securities in a report. 

Estimates: Revenue at ₹15,538.9 crore (up 27.9 per cent Y-o-Y); Ebitda margin at 20.6 per cent (up 38 bps Y-o-Y); PAT at ₹2,549.3 crore (up 24.4 per cent Y-o-Y).

Nirmal Bang

Standalone revenue is projected to increase 24 per cent Y-o-Y, led by strong domestic and export volumes, favourable INR-USD movement, and a higher share of 125cc+ motorcycles. ASPs are supported by an improved export mix and recent price hikes. 

According to Nirmal Bang, the Ebitda margin is expected to moderate sequentially as higher raw material costs partly offset benefits from pricing and strong export volumes. 

Estimates: Net sales at ₹15,531.2 crore (up 27.9 per cent Y-o-Y); Ebitda at ₹3,170.5 crore (up 29.4 per cent Y-o-Y); Ebitda margin at 20.4 per cent (up 24 bps Y-o-Y); PAT at ₹2,541.1 crore (up 24 per cent Y-o-Y). 

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