Bharti Airtel gains 2% in weak market; stock rallies 33% thus far in CY2025

Bharti Airtel stock outlook: Given the low inflation and no major upcoming elections, analysts at Motilal Oswal believe that the time is ripe for telcos to undertake the next tariff hike.

Share price of Bharti Airtel today

 

Shares of Bharti Airtel were trading firm, gaining 2 per cent at ₹2,106 on the BSE in Tuesday’s intra-day trade in an otherwise weak market. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was down 0.52 per cent at 84,767 at 02:08 PM.

 

Thus far in the calendar year 2025, Bharti Airtel has outperformed the market by soaring 33 per cent, as against 8 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. The stock had hit a record high of ₹2,174.70 on November 21, 2025.

Why do brokerages see more upside in Bharti Airtel stock price?

 

Given the low inflation and no major state elections in the next couple of months, analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) believe that the time is ripe for telcos to undertake the next tariff hike. The brokerage firm builds in a tariff hike of 15 per cent (or ~₹50/cycle on 28 day 1.5GB/d plan) in December 2025.

 

 

With the July 2024 tariff hike in the base, revenue growth for telcos moderated to 10 per cent year-on-year in September 2025 quarter Q2FY26 and is set to decline further in December 2025 in the absence of another tariff hike.

 

Private telcos have undertaken three rounds of smartphone tariff hikes in the last six years. Telcos undertook a 30 per cent plus blended tariff hike in December 2019, in the immediate aftermath of the adverse adjusted gross revenue (AGR) verdict, which was followed by a pause of almost two years due to COVID-19. Telcos then raised headline tariffs by 20 per cent plus in December 2021, which was followed by a pause of almost two and a half years.  ALSO READ | Axis Bank shares slide 4% on reports of delay in NIM recovery; details here 

Despite the three rounds of tariff hikes, MOFSL note that telco spends as a % of nominal GDP has inched up to 0.86 per cent in September 2025 (vs. 0.71 per cent in September 2019) and remains significantly lower than 1.4 per cent in July 2016 (just before RJio’s launch). Further, the brokerage firm in its telecom report notes that data costs in India remain among the lowest globally, even as consumption is among the highest, which provides runway for further tariff hikes 

 

Driven by tariff repair, an improved subscriber mix (non-data to data, prepaid to postpaid), and sharp hikes on minimum recharge packs, Bharti has been the biggest beneficiary of tariff repair, with average revenue per user (ARPU) doubling to ₹256 over the last six years and ~17 per cent CAGR in quarterly wireless revenue (vs. 10-11 per cent CAGR in popular plan pricing) over Sep’19 to Sep’25. The brokerage firm said it remains structurally positive on the telecom sector and continues to prefer Bharti with a BUY rating and target price ₹2,365 per share.

 

From a long-term perspective, analysts at Axis Direct believe Bharti Airtel is well-positioned to continue gaining market share, backed by the highest penetrations and minimal Capex requirements. Given its stronger digital portfolio supported by rising per-user data and growing business verticals, the brokerage firm is positive about the company’s future growth.  ALSO READ | Mid, smallcap shares slip up to 5%; Ola Electric, PB Fintech top losers 

The company anticipates steady revenue growth across its core segments, supported by rising 4G and 5G adoption, broadband penetration, and increased demand for enterprise solutions. EBITDA margins are expected to remain robust, aided by operational efficiencies, network optimisation, and monetisation of digital services. 

 

The management continues to prioritise financial discipline, targeting sustained free cash flow generation and progressive debt reduction. Hence, the brokerage firm said it maintains a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock. Based on the SOTP valuation, analysts arrive at a target price of ₹2,530 per share.  ========================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.