Earnings revival to liquidity boost: Key factors to watch this Samvat 2082

Indian stock markets drew curtains on Samvat 2081 with mixed returns, impacted by heightened volatility in the global markets due to US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, border tensions between India and Pakistan, and Iran-Israel war in West Asia.

 

Besides, high valuation, modest India Inc earnings growth, and weakening of the Indian rupee further capped the upside in the markets.

 

The benchmark Nifty50 index ended the previous Samvat with a return of 6.8 per cent, while the broader Nifty MidCap and the Nifty SmallCap yielded 5.9 per cent and -1.5 per cent returns, respectively.

 

Going ahead, analysts believe the impact of the policy reforms announced in the latter part of Samvat 2081 will be the key domestic cues that may shape the markets in Samvat 2082.

 

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"Samvat 2082 is poised to mark the inflexion point for Indian equities as growth gear shifts to recovery, powered by domestic demand, fiscal and monetary tailwinds, and improving corporate earnings visibility," Sneha Poddar, VP – Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., said.  ALSO READ | Can Nifty hit 30,000 in Samvat 2082? Check targets for Sensex, key indices

Here are the key events to watch out for in Samvat 2082:

 

Earnings revival: Earnings growth is expected to rebound meaningfully in the new Samvat year as recent policy measures filter through the economy. Nifty profit after tax (PAT) is projected to rise about 8 per cent in FY26 and 16 per cent in FY27, following muted 1 per cent growth in FY25, according to Poddar.

 

Consumption boost: Analysts said investors should watch out for any broad-based consumption recovery trends, aided by GST 2.0 simplification, improving urban demand, festive tailwinds, and overall earnings acceleration.

 

Anil Rego, Co-founder and Fund Manager at Right Horizons PMS, said GST 2.0 reforms, along with urban demand recovery, are boosting consumption, with household spending power set to rise by 0.7-0.8 per cent of GDP.

 

Capex revival: Private investment cycles are expected to strengthen, led by manufacturing, defence, and infrastructure, along with government thrust, as per analysts. Improved credit transmission through banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) should further support growth.  ALSO READ | Large vs mid vs small caps: Where to look for alpha in Samvat 2082? 

Trade negotiations: At the macro-level, progress in India's trade talks with the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) could lift market sentiment by expanding market access and improving export competitiveness. However, delays or setbacks in these pacts may weigh on export-linked sectors and investor confidence.

 

Rego said persistent FII outflows, US tariff uncertainty with 50 per cent duties on Indian exports, and geopolitical tensions remain key headwinds.

 

Liquidity support: Further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India could boost market liquidity and support equities. Rego said that expected RBI rate cuts and festive tailwinds, coupled with infrastructure-led earnings acceleration, should support opportunities in consumption and financials.

 

Currency volatility: A rupee depreciation to the 89-90 levels may act as a drag, though RBI interventions are likely at those levels. Rego said that a rupee near record lows around ₹88 per dollar could further weigh on sentiment.