Emkay Global upgrades Bajaj Auto to 'Buy' on EV momentum, export recovery

Emkay Global upgrades Bajaj Auto to 'Buy', raises target to ₹11,100 citing EV leadership, export recovery, EPS upgrades and strong risk-reward outlook

Emkay Global upgrades Bajaj Auto

Domestic brokerage firm Emkay Global Financial Services has upgraded Bajaj Auto stock rating from 'Add' to 'Buy', driven by the company's evolving portfolio and strengthening market position.

 

Emkay Global has raised its share price target on Bajaj Auto to ₹11,100 from ₹9,500, projecting an upside of approximately 17 per cent, bolstered by an attractive risk-reward ratio.

 

"The upside is on account of an earnings per share (EPS) upgrade by around 4 per cent for FY27 and 9 per cent for FY28, and incorporating Bajaj Auto Credit at ₹300 per share. This is based on 2x FY28E P/B, given the meaningful ramp-up in operations. We believe Bajaj Auto offers an attractive risk-reward at current levels (1-year forward at 24x vs 38x for TVS Motor and 32x for Eicher Motor)," Emkay Global said.  On the bourses, Bajaj Auto share price gained 2 per cent, hitting a fresh 52-week high of ₹9,690.45 per share on the BSE in the intraday trade. At 9:44 AM, Bajaj Auto shares were up 1.9 per cent as against 0.32 per cent decline in the benchmark BSE Sensex index.     Bajaj Auto shares have an all-time high of ₹12,772.15, touched on September 27, 2024. Over the past one month, Bajaj Auto shares have rallied around 7 per cent, while they have surged 10.3 per cent in one year.   ALSO READ | Emkay names TVS Motor, Ather, Maruti as preferred auto plays; here's why

 

Dominance in the electric vehicle (EV) segment

A major milestone highlighted by Emkay Global is Bajaj Auto’s ascent in the electric three-wheeler (E-3W) space. As of December 2025, the company has overtaken Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) to claim the number-1 spot in the E-3W market, capturing a 31.8 per cent share. Simultaneously, the company has maintained its position as the second-largest player in the electric two-wheeler (E-2W) segment for four consecutive months. Notably, the EV business has already achieved Ebitda breakeven, signalling a sustainable transition toward green mobility.

 

“Bajaj Auto’s overall domestic 2W market share has likely bottomed out (10.5 per cent in December 2025 vs 10 per cent in Q2FY25), with domestic motorcycle dispatches growing in a low single digit over the past 15 month... However, a sequential pick-up has been witnessed in the overall market share, led by 125cc and premium motorcycles, so far in Q3FY26, at 21.9 per cent and 22.2 per cent, respectively, compared to 21.1 per cent and 21.9 per cent in Q2FY26,” Emkay said.

 

Going ahead, the two-wheeler manufacturer’s strategy to push newer (Pulsar, Chetak) models (~3-4 lined up in Q4) is likely to aid the market share trajectory, the brokerage said.  ALSO READ | HDFC Securities sees strong growth prospects for Trent; upgrades to 'Add'

Export resilience

On the international front, exports remain a pillar of growth, particularly in Latin America and Asia. With exports now constituting roughly 44 per cent of the volume mix, the company is well-positioned to benefit from currency depreciation tailwinds, which are expected to enhance overall margins, Emkay said.

 

Combined with a gradual turnaround at KTM, Emkay Global anticipates a healthy 14 per cent EPS CAGR through FY28, with a 2.7-per cent December 2027 dividend yield.