Equirus' $20trn economy roadmap: List railways, cut TDS, end STT & more

Equirus Securities in its report 'India's Road to a $20 Trillion Economy' has proposed a 20-point reform agenda across five areas.

India’s transition towards a $20 trillion economy by 2036 would require the economy to expand around 5.5 times from its current base, implying sustained nominal growth of roughly 18 per cent in dollar terms, said Equirus Securities in its report 'India’s Road to a $20 Trillion Economy'.

 

"From a starting point near $3.7tn, reaching $20tn means growing the economy about 5.5 times, which works out to a sustained nominal growth rate of roughly 18 per cent in dollar terms - comfortably above India's historical trend of 10–11 per cent," the brokerage said.

 

In its report, Equirus has proposed a 20-point reform agenda across five areas -- The Real Economy, Capital Markets, Human Capital, The Services Engine, and Liveability & Governance.

 

 

Of India's three big sectors, the report said that agriculture (about 17 per cent of GDP) will keep shrinking as a share as the country urbanises; manufacturing (17–20 per cent) is largely capped by a more protectionist world; which leaves services (already 54 per cent of GDP) as the engine that has to do the heavy lifting, rising past 65 per cent and expanding from roughly $2tn to $11tn+.  Key recommendations  Among its key recommendations, Equirus has proposed bringing fuel under the GST; introducing mandatory state capex floors; take the railways public; an India Sovereign Fund on the Temasek model; revive private R&D; bond-equity tax parity to deepen capital markets; taper small-savings schemes; abolish advance tax; cut TDS to a flat 5 per cent; end double transaction tax; and national GCC policy among others.   List railways

 

The report said that railways is one of the government's biggest annual capital commitments - about ₹2.8 trillion in FY27, close to 5 per cent of the entire Union Budget, almost all of it funded by taxpayers. Listing it publicly, at an asset-backed ~3x revenue, could be worth about $500 billion and lift India's market capitalisation toward $5.5 trillion.

 

"With foreign investors typically holding ~15 per cent, the listing pulls in real forex inflows, which support the rupee and, in turn, cheaper imports and lower inflation. The bigger prize is permanent: once the market funds railway capex, that ₹2.8 trillion a year is freed for other priorities," the report said. 

Take the Railways publicTake the Railways public

  Holding company  Equirus said that the government sits on about $249 billion of equity across public-sector companies. It suggested pooling all into one professionally run holding company and then listing the holding vehicle, not the underlying PSUs. The government keeps 100 per cent ownership of the fund; the public buys into the vehicle; and selling about 5 per cent of the growing fund each year raises capital without ever ceding control of any single company.  

"Those proceeds - around $13 billion in year one, rising toward $32 billion - can fund subsidies, capex gaps, and strategic bets without new taxes or debt," it said.  Bond markets  The report also calls for deeper corporate bond markets. The corporate bond market is about 18 per cent of GDP against equity at 130 per cent - roughly a 7x gap and a shallow bond market means dearer borrowing across the whole economy.

 

Levelling the tax treatment of bonds and equity to deepen the bond market could add enormous capacity of about ₹54 trillion. 

Bond-equity tax parity to deepen capital markets

 

End double transaction tax

 

Equirus further said that India is the only one of its peer markets that stacks two separate transaction taxes - STT and stamp duty - on the same cash equity trade, while the US and Singapore levy effectively nothing on exchange-traded shares. STT alone brought in over ₹400 billion in FY26, and Budget 2026 nudged it higher.  

End the double transaction tax

 

Removing stamp duty on financial products and STT on cash equity would stop taxing 180 million demat holders, tighten spreads, and remove a cost that would otherwise undercut the IDR ambition. 

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