Nifty at 22,000: 5 reasons Axis Securities believes market near a bottom

From key moving averages, momentum oscillators to historical price trends - Axis Securities in its report highlights the key metrics in its argument that the Nifty may be near a bottom this March.

The NSE Nifty 50 index has shed 7 per cent thus far in the calendar year 2025, and declined over 16 per cent from its peak of 26,277 hit in September 2025. Amid the downturn, the Nifty has cracked below key moving averages, quoted at 9-month lows and registered a 5-month losing streak a first since November 1996, thus raising concerns about a potential bear market.  Meanwhile, on the charts, the Nifty was seen testing its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) support, which stands at 21,900 levels. And here's precisely why, analysts at Axis Securities believe that the markets are in 'Bulls Sweet Spot'.  Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities in a report highlights that price corrections in the Nifty in the last one decade, barring the Covid-led crash, was contained around the 100-WMA (+/- 3 per cent). That apart, the report highlights multiple indicators suggesting that the market may be near a bottom.  Here are the 5 key reasons that the brokerage firm listed out in its report titled - Nifty at 22,000 - An opportunity beckons.  1. Bulls Sweet Spot: Historically in the last one decade, the Nifty bottomed out inside an envelope on the weekly chart (+/- 3 per cent range from its 100-WMA). The chart below shows that 2016 low was the start of a major bull run, which culminated with a peak last year. Interim corrections found support in the highlighted envelope. 

 

 

  2. Nifty at key Fibonacci retracement levels: Analysis of past market data by Axis Securities shows that the Nifty was testing the lower boundary of a parallel channel originating from the late 2021 peak. Fibonacci retracement levels align in the 21,800 – 22,000 range, indicating a potential demand zone.  3. Extremely poor market breadth: Breadth measures for the NSE 500 index are at extreme lows, with only 7.6 per cent, 6.2 per cent, and 10.1 per cent of stocks trading above their 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, respectively. Historical patterns suggest that extreme breadth readings often precede market bottoms.  ALSO READ: Can Nifty fall 20% from peak to enter bear phase? Chart check  4. Oversold Weekly RSI Indicator: The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the oversold "bull market" zone (33-40). Historically, 87 per cent of market corrections reaching this zone have resulted in a market trough. The present market drop has dragged the oscillator down into the lower end of this area; thus the odds of a rally attempt from here are materially high. 

 

  Further, 6 out of 11 sectors are oversold based on their 14-day RSI, and all sectors are trading below their 200-day moving averages.  5. March effect & the odd/ even year conundrum: Historically March has been a strong month for market recoveries, with an average gain of 1.7 per cent since 2009 (excluding the 2023 outlier plunge). Further, the Nifty has never recorded 6 consecutive months of fall in history, suggesting a potential rebound.  That apart, an analogy of odd and even years and those following the US Presidential elections shows strong performance by the Indian stock market, with the Nifty rising 75 per cent and 83 per cent of the time, respectively, and delivering median returns of 17.1 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.  Axis Securities concludes its research note by highlighting that the current market environment exhibits signs of excessive pessimism and fear - which are often precursors to durable bottoms. While the market awaits a clear bullish trigger; historical patterns, technical indicators, and sectoral valuations suggest that the market is nearing a medium-term bottom.