Nifty Auto up 3x vs Nifty in last 4 years; analysts expect further upside

The Nifty Auto index has zoomed as much as 157.8 per cent in the last four calendar years as against a 50.6 per cent surge in the benchmark Nifty 50, shows data.

The Nifty Auto index was up over 1 per cent in intra-day trade on Friday, and hit a fresh all-time high for the third straight trading session. The Auto index registered a new summit at 28,823 today amid the strong December monthly sales cheer.  The Nifty Auto index has outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50 in the last four calendar years. The Auto index has zoomed as much as 157.8 per cent from levels of around 10,937 at the end of December 2021. In comparison, the Nifty 50 index has surged by 50.6 per cent in the same period. Thus, this shows that the Nifty Auto index has rallied 3x versus the 1x gain on the Nifty 50.  Analysis of data from ACE Equity further shows that the Nifty Auto index has clocked an average gain of 27.3 per cent in the last four years as against 10.9 per cent on the Nifty 50 index.  CATCH STOCK MARKET UPDATES TODAY LIVE  Analysts expect further upside in the Auto index given the buoyant mood in the sector post GST 2.0 reforms.  Domestic passenger vehicle (PV) wholesales jumped 25.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 405,000 units in December 2025, driven by sustained demand after the goods and services tax (GST) rationalisation in September and buyers advancing purchases ahead of annual price hikes by automakers in January. READ MORE  According to reports, Maruti Suzuki India is likely to soon take a call on whether to revise upwards prices of its small cars, for which it reduced rates last year over and above the GST benefit of 8.5 per cent. READ MORE  At 11:45 AM, the Nifty Auto index quoted 1.1 per cent higher around 28,800 levels, while the Nifty 50 was 0.5 per cent at 26,287 - the benchmark was roughly 40-odd points shy from its record high of 26,325.80 hit in December 2025.  Nandish Shah, senior derivative and technical analyst at HDFC Securities expects the Nifty Auto index to outperform in the New Year as well. Technically, the analyst expects the short-term trend to remain bullish as long as the Nifty Auto holds above 27,100 levels. Shah expects up to 8 per cent upside from current levels.  "On the upside, the Nifty Auto index has given a breakout on the monthly scale, and could possibly rally to 31,000 levels," Nandish Shah said.   

Nifty Auto index chart

 

 

 

  The daily chart shows that the Nifty Auto index is seen quoting at record high levels, above the higher-end of the Bollinger Bands for the third straight trading session.  The chart also shows that the 20-day moving average (20-DMA) and the Supertrend indicator are seen converging around 27,780 levels.  Meanwhile, among individual auto stocks, Nirmal Bang's technical research desk in its New Year Picks 2026 has recommended 'BUY' on Bajaj Auto and Bharat Forge. 

Bajaj Auto

Current Market Price: ₹9,531 

 

  Nirmal Bang in its research note says, Bajaj-Auto is well placed above the 200-DMA, and is seen taking multiple support near 20-DMA and 50-DMA, on the daily chart.  On the upside, the Bajaj Auto stock can rally to ₹10,900 - this implies an upside potential of 14.4 per cent from current levels. The brokerage firm recommends placing a technical stop loss at ₹8,200. 

Bharat Forge

Current Market Price: ₹1,480 

 

  The brokerage firm highlights that Bharat Forge is not only seen trading above its long-term 200-DMA for the last few months, but has also witnessed the formation for a 'Golden Crossover' in October 2025.  Nirmal Bang expects an upside target of ₹1,870 for Bharat Forge stock with and stop loss placed at ₹1,230. The target price implies potential upside of around 26.4 per cent from current levels.  Disclaimer: The views expressed by the brokerage/ analyst in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.