Nifty F&O expiry: Analysts see 26,000 as key resistance; strategy today

The derivatives data reflects at a cautious and guarded market stance, with Call writers at slight advantage, explains Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

The NSE Nifty 50 index has shed 230 points or 0.9 per cent in the last four straight trading sessions. In the process, the Nifty is seen quoting near its 50-day moving average, which stands at 25,923 on the daily chart.  Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities highlights that the Nifty seems to be failing to sustain the recent recovery attempts. The daily candle on Monday reflects renewed selling pressure, with the index slipping back after facing resistance near the 26,100–26,000 zone, the analyst said.  "The index has now moved below the 20-day moving average, which is placed near 25,980, indicating a loss of short-term momentum. However, Nifty continues to trade above the lower Bollinger Band, keeping the broader range intact and preventing any sharp expansion in volatility," explains Om Mehra. 

 

 

  The technical analyst expects support for the Nifty around 25,860 levels, which is the 78.6 per cent retracement level. On the upside, 26,000–26,050 remains the first resistance band, while 26,150 continues to act as a higher and more formidable hurdle for any sustainable rebound, the analyst said in a note.  Failure to hold 25,900, especially in the initial hour, could drag Nifty towards 25,800–25,700, with a decisive breakdown opening the door to a deeper corrective phase, warns Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.  "Momentum indicators reflect caution, with the RSI hovering near 49 and showing a bearish crossover, while MACD remains bearish but with a narrowing histogram, hinting that downside momentum may be gradually waning. As long as Nifty sustains above 25,950, recovery attempts toward 26,050–26,100 remain possible, keeping the short-term bias neutral to cautiously bearish," Ponmudi said.  Overall, as long as the Nifty holds above 25,800, it is likely to consolidate within the 25,800–26,325 range in the short term, believes Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research of Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates. 

Nifty expiry F&O cues

  From a derivatives perspective, the F&O data reflects a cautious and guarded market stance, explains Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.  "Call writers have added fresh positions at at-the-money and nearby strikes, reinforcing overhead supply and limiting upside attempts. Notably, a significant accumulation of nearly 2.30 crore call contracts at the 26,000 strike has firmly established this level as an immediate resistance zone," said Dhupesh Dhameja.  On the other hand, put writers have reduced exposure and rolled positions to lower strikes, signalling expectations of continued consolidation rather than an immediate breakout, the note read.  Dhupesh emphasis that the addition of around 1.13 crore Put contracts at the 25,900 strike has created a strong support cushion for the Nifty on declines. A minor short-covering bounce cannot be ruled out, especially if the index manages to defend the 25,900–25,860 support band, he adds. 

FIIs vs DIIs vs Retail: Open positions in Nifty futures

  An analysis of the Nifty F&O data shows that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) long-short ratio in Nifty futures stands 0.16 - implying presence of over 86 open positions on the short side of trade. The FIIs long-short ratio had reached a low of 0.09 on December 18, 2025.  On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail investors long-short ratio in Nifty futures stands at 2.13 and 2.48, respectively. This ratio indicates presence of more than 2 long (buy-side) positions in the index for every short (sell-side) trade.  Disclaimer: The views expressed by the brokerage/ analyst in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.