What next for Nifty after 1,769-pt volatile ride in 3 days? Chart says this

Nifty's Budget day high at 25,440, has now shifted from resistance to support, says Kunal Shah, Sr. Tech Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan. On the upside, the analyst expects the Nifty to test 26,700.

Nifty, Nifty MidCap, Nifty SmallCap off to a volatile start in February

  The NSE Nifty 50 index has swung in a wide range of 1,769 points in the last three trading sessions, since the Budget Day on February 1, 2026. The Nifty has recorded a low of 24,572 on Sunday (Budget Day) and a high of 26,341 yesterday.  In the same period, the Nifty MidCap 100 and the Nifty SmallCap 100 indices have swung in a range of 7.7 per cent (4,331 points) and 7.6 per cent (1,229 points), respectively.  Overall, the Nifty has gained 1.8 per cent and quotes around 25,750 levels thus far in the month of February. Whereas, the Nifty MidCap and Nifty SmallCap quote with a gain of 1.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent, at 59,475 and 17,100 levels, respectively.  Given this background, here's a detailed technical analysis by Kunal Shah of Mirae Asset ShareKhan on the likely trend ahead for the Nifty and the broader indices.

  Nifty 50 technical outlook

  The Nifty 50 has displayed strong bullish momentum, fuelled by a significant gap-up opening following positive India-US tariff news. Despite the surge, the index narrowly missed a new all-time high, falling short by just 30 points. 

 

 

  Technically, the 25,440 level (Budget Day high) has shifted from resistance to a crucial support floor that must hold to sustain this uptrend. Looking ahead, the 25,900 – 26,000 zone remains a stiff hurdle, says Kunal Shah, Senior Technical Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan.  The analyst believes that in case of a decisive breakout above this range could trigger intense short-covering, potentially propelling the Nifty toward the 26,500 – 26,700 territory. This implies an upside potential of 3.7 per cent (950 points) from here. 

Nifty MidCap 100 outlook

  The Nifty Midcap 100 index has demonstrated a resilient recovery in early February 2026, underscored by a decisive gap-up opening. By surpassing the previous swing high resistance of 58,600, the index has effectively turned this level into a critical "polarity" support. This shift suggests that the broader market sentiment is stabilizing after the post-Budget volatility, says Kunal Shah. 

 

  Shah highlights that the index faces an immediate hurdle at the 60,450 mark. This level serves as the gatekeeper for a significant trend reversal; a sustained move above it would officially transition the short-term outlook from bearish to bullish.  "In the near term, the Nifty MidCap 100 is expected to undergo a period of time-wise consolidation within the 58,600 – 60,450 range. Market participants should watch for a breakout from this corridor, which would likely signal the next major trending move for midcap stocks," the analyst explains. 

Nifty SmallCap 100 outlook

  The Mirae Asset ShareKhan analyst says that the Nifty Smallcap 100 currently reflects a cautious undertone within the broader market. Despite a recent gap-up opening, the index struggled to maintain its momentum, failing to sustain above its key short-term moving averages: the 20-day DMA and the 40-day EMA.  This rejection at the moving averages, the analyst says indicates that selling pressure remains prevalent at higher levels. 

 

  "Technically, the Nifty SmallCap faces significant upside hurdles at the 17,500 and 18,000 marks. A decisive breakout above these resistance levels is required to shift the current short-term trend from neutral-bearish to bullish," says Shah.  Conversely, the immediate support on the downside is established at 16,200. A breach below this floor could intensify selling pressure, potentially dragging the index toward the 15,000 psychological level, the analyst cautions.  Disclaimer: The views expressed by the brokerage/ analyst in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.