Sensex, Nifty technically oversold, await relief rally; track weekly levels

Stock Market outlook this week: Here's a trading guide with key levels to track on the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty for the week February 24 - February 28, 2025.

The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty 50 ended with losses for the second straight week last Friday amid global worries and persistent FIIs (foreign institutional investors) selling pressure. The BSE Sensex hit a low of 75,112, and ended the week with a loss of 0.8 per cent or 628 points at 75,311.  The NSE Nifty gyrated in the range of 23,050 - 22,720 before settling at 22,796 - down 133 points or 0.6 per cent.  Among individual Nifty 50 shares - Mahindra & Mahindra was the top loser for the second straight week - down another 9 per cent at Rs 2,669. Bharti Airtel, TCS (Tata Consultancy Services), Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceutical, Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and Maruti Suzuki were the other major losers.  On the positive front, NTPC, Shriram Finance, Hindalco Industries, Eicher Motors, Tata Steel, Coal India and ONGC (Oil & Natural Gas Corporation) gained in the range of 4 - 8 per cent.  Last week, despite net purchases on Tuesday, FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 7,793.27 crore; thus taking the monthly tally to Rs 36,976.70 crore.  In the holiday-shortened (markets will be closed for trading on Wednesday on account of Maha Shivratri) week ahead, cues from the global markets, developments on the Russia-Ukraine way and updated on new coronavirus detected in China alongside FIIs trading activity and the monthly futures & options expiry shall sway the market mood.    Technically, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty are seen trading in an extremely oversold zone; with the Sensex logging gains in just 2 out of the last 14 trading sessions.  Given this oversold condition, will the Sensex and Nifty be able to counter weak cues from global markets and stage a relief rally in this holiday-shortened week? Here's what the charts indicate and the key levels to track on these 2 benchmark indices.  BSE Sensex  Last close: 75,311  Support: 74,370 - 74,200  Resistance: 75,685 - 75,900  The BSE Sensex has now given a fresh sell signal on the quarterly Fibonacci chart, as the index broke the S-1 (support) at 75,140 levels. In the week ahead, the Sensex is likely to dip below 74,370 - 74,200 levels; thereby indicating a sell signal on the yearly scale; before attempting a pullback, if any.  For a pullback rally to emerge this week, the BSE Sensex will need to trade consistently above 75,100 levels. On the upside, the index may face resistance at 75,685 and 75,900 levels; above which it may spurt back to 76,300 levels.    NSE Nifty  Last close: 22,796  Support: 22,600; 22,450  Resistance: 22,900; 23,200  The NSE Nifty has been moving within downward sloping trend lines after posting a high at 26,277 in late September. At present, the Nifty quotes close to its lower-end of the sloping trend, with support likely around 22,600 levels. The trend lines are seen converging, with the gap now reduced to 600-odd points; thus implying that a breakout on either side could trigger a sharp reaction. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Given the negative bias the Nifty seems on course to test 20-MMA (Monthly Moving Average) support at 22,450 levels; below which the Nifty can slide to 21,500 levels.  However, in case, the Nifty does find support around the lower-end of the sloping trend line, and then attempts a pullback, the index can potentially rally to 23,400 levels. In case of a pullback, the Nifty may face interim resistance around 22,900 and 23,200 levels. 
 

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