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After a strong Q1, prospects remain bright for TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto

Exports, premium motorcycles and electric vehicles drove strong June-quarter earnings, while management commentary points to sustained momentum despite cost pressures

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Devangshu Datta New Delhi

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Despite a challenging environment, two-wheeler (2W) majors Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor delivered good performances in the first quarter of 2026-27 (Q1FY27), backed by encouraging guidance and positive export outlook. Commodity inflation was 3.5 per cent in Q1, and another 0.5 per cent in Q2 so far with higher prices of metals and plastics. April supply was also disrupted by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
 
TVS reported 38 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) revenue growth and standalone net profit rose 51 per cent Y-o-Y. Domestic 2W volumes grew 21 per cent Y-o-Y, much faster than industry. The scooter portfolio — comprising internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric vehicle (EV) — contributed 40 per cent of total volumes, with cumulative iQube sales of over 1 million units, emphasising TVS’s leadership in EVs. 
 
The company’s standalone revenue was up 37.8 per cent Y-o-Y (up 8.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter) to ₹13,896 crore with 27.7 per cent Y-o-Y growth in volume and 8.0 per cent Y-o-Y growth in average selling price (ASP).  The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) is up 41.2 per cent Y-o-Y (up 5.9 per cent  Q-o-Q) to ₹1,779 crore. The Ebitda margin was up 30 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y (down 31 bps Q-o-Q) to 12.8 per cent. The adjusted net profit was up 51.4 per cent Y-o-Y and up 17.7 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹1,174 crore.  
 
Exports grew 32 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by Africa and Latin America. They contributed 26 per cent of revenue with favourable currency trends. The Norton makeover is progressing, with production underway for four premium motorcycles and launches planned for later in 2026, with ₹2,500 crore invested over the past four to five years.
 
Total volumes rose 28 per cent Y-o-Y to 1.63 million units. Domestic 2W volumes grew 21 per cent Y-o-Y and overall 2W volumes rose 23 per cent Y-o-Y. The three-wheeler volumes (domestic and export) grew 48 per cent Y-o-Y to 67,000 units.
 
The EV contribution and profitability is improving. The electric two-wheeler (e2W) volumes grew 82 per cent Y-o-Y to 0.26 million units with revenue of ₹1,780 crore. Across industry, e2W penetration was over 10.6 per cent in June 2026 and electric three-wheeler (e3W) penetration crossed 40 per cent, with TVS gaining share in both segments; further, it is scaling capacity in both too. Overall 2W capacity will rise from 6.8 million to 8.3 million units by Q4FY27 and 3W capacity from 0.25 million to 0.42 million units. The FY27 capex will be ₹3,500 crore.
 
The company guided that it would outperform double-digit industry growth in Q2FY27 with tailwinds from GST rationalisation, income-tax relief and improved affordability. Dealer inventory is being held at 25-30 days.
 
Bajaj Auto’s Q1 revenue grew 37 per cent Y-o-Y while Ebitda was up 45 per cent and adjusted net profit grew 42 per cent Y-o-Y.  It is enjoying export momentum while the EV portfolio is scaling up and moving into the black. The company also has a product pipeline of 10 planned launches by this September.
 
The Ebitda margin expanded 45 bps Y-o-Y (8.2 bps Q-o-Q), despite commodity headwinds. Adjusted net profit stood at ₹3,000 crore, including higher other income. Management expects volumes to cross the 1.5 million wholesale milestone in Q2. Exports comprised 732,000 units, with Latin America and Africa as strong performers. 3W exports also saw 70 per cent Y-o-Y growth.
 
Given favourable currency trends and brand recognition, Bajaj could maintain mid-teens export growth through next two years and see higher acceleration if West Asia tensions ease. Overall wholesale volumes may grow at 12 per cent over FY26-28.
 
The EV portfolio (e2W and e3W) reported low double-digit Ebitda margins in Q1, with higher margins from e3W and marginally positive from e2W (“Chetak”). EVs now contribute 30 per cent of domestic revenue. The premium franchise, with KTM and Triumph, also has momentum, and is witnessing domestic revenue growth at 60 per cent Y-o-Y. The company is expanding the KTM-Triumph retail network.
 
Management is targeting 250,000 units per month of exports and expects domestic growth to remain premium-led, with the above 150 cc segment of Pulsar, Dominar, KTM, Triumph growing at twice the industry rate. Bajaj is expanding capacity by 25 per cent from 7 million units per annum across different businesses to 9 million units per annum.
 
The key risks for both could be soft demand for new launches, supply chain disruptions and associated macro risks due to geopolitics that put a brake on exports. A poor monsoon could slow down domestic demand. There may be base effects as the festival season shifts. The inflation outlook is uppish and cost impact may need to be offset by calibrated price hikes. Both companies have taken price hikes in Q1. There could be some near-term margin compression.
 
The writer is a New Delhi-based independent journalist