TMPV shares rise day after 8% rout; analysts divided post JLR investor day

TMPV share price today: Shares of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) gained marginally in trade on Thursday, a day after the counter crashed more than 8 per cent following Jaguar Land Rover’s investor day presentation. TMPV shares opened in the green at ₹363.90 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and touched a high of ₹366.26 in morning deals. 

On Wednesday, TMPV shares logged their sharpest intra-day decline, down more than 10 per cent, since the spin-off of commercial vehicle (CV) business in October 2025. It was also the top loser on the Nifty 50.  

TMPV shares have remained flat on 2026 so far, compared with a 7.7 per cent decline in the Nifty 50 index. In past one year, the Tata Group stock has corrected more than 45 per cent as against a 2.8 per cent decline in the benchmark index.  

 

Notably, JLR, a part of Tata Motors, said that it is targeting medium-term double-digit revenue growth and increase focus on the North America market. The company also reconfirms its existing five-year commitment to invest £18bn in future technologies, vehicle platforms and transformation by FY29 (starting FY24), as it drives growth in a flexible propulsion, software and AI defined era.  READ LATEST STOCK MARKET UPDATES LIVE

Nomura on Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Stock: 'Neutral' | Target ₹373

 

Post investor day, brokerages remained divided on TMPV outlook, with Nomura has maintaining 'Neutral' with a target price of ₹373. The brokerage said that JLR's FY27 guidance came in slightly below expectations and near-term triggers remain limited. 

 

JLR expects FY27E revenue at £26 billion, and Ebit margin at 4 per cent. Nomura said that both are below its estimates of £26.8 billion, and 4.4 per cent, respectively. JLR also expects free cash flow to break even in FY27, versus Nomura's earlier expectation of a positive £622 million. 

 

"While annual revenue for FY27E is just 5 per cent below the 4QFY26 run-rate, FY27E Ebit margin guidance is much lower," Nomura said. JLR also plans to launch five new models over the next 18 months, including the Range Rover Electric, Jaguar Type 01, Range Rover Sport Electric and two products based on the EMA platform. 

 

On the company's focus on North America market, Nomura said that the US market has strong potential with wealth creation and 44 per cent of demand above $50,000. The company is exploring a partnership with Stellantis for Defender products for the US. In the long run, JLR’s US volumes have potential to be as big as entire JLR today.

 

Nomura mentioned that while it is positive about the India PV business outlook for TMPV, "we have been cautious about the outlook for JLR given adverse demand conditions in key markets."   READ | IT shares trade weak; Infy, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro slip up to 2%; here's why

Motilal Oswal on TMPV Shares: 'Sell' | Target ₹312

 

Motilal Oswal has reiterated 'Sell' on Tata Motors PV, citing JLR headwinds. The brokerage has set a target price of ₹312. The brokerage said that JLR is facing multiple challenges, including ongoing tariff pressures; persistent challenges in the China market, and inflationary pressures

 

The brokerage said that JLR did not provide any outlook for FY28, indicating limited earnings visibility. 

 

"Further, a 4 per cent Ebit margin guidance still translates into only a high single-digit Ebitda margin for FY27E. The absence of FY28 guidance also points to limited earnings visibility in future," the brokerage said.

Nuvama on TMPV: 'Buy' | Target ₹470

 

Nuvama has retained 'Buy' on TMC for a target price of ₹470, saying that the recovery at JLR will be driven new launches, cost saving measures and focus on North America.

 

The brokerage has build JLR revenue and Ebitda CAGR of 16 per cent and 55 per cent owing to low base, new products, ramp-up of utilisation and cost savings. 

 

On the company's intensifying focus on North America, the brokerage said that the recently announced collaboration with Stellantis is intended at developing new products under the Defender brand designed for the US market.  READ | Motilal Oswal bullish on defence sector; BEL top pick for 20% upside 

Emkay on TMPV: 'Add' | Target ₹390

 

Emkay Global Financial Services has maintained 'Add' rating on Tata Motors PV stock and lowered its target price  to ₹390 from ₹440, citing weaker profitability guidance from JLR due to tariffs, higher warranty costs and currency headwinds. 

  The brokerage has cut JLR’s FY27E/FY28E volume by 11/8 per cent, and Ebit margin by 190/95 bps to 4 per cent/5.7 per cent due to cost headwinds.   =================================== 

Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.