Trading guide, April 11: Trump 90-day tariff halt, global sell-off, TCS Q4

In the previous session, Indian markets ended in the red after the RBI MPC cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent, and shifted its policy stance from 'accommodative' to 'neutral'.

Stock Market Today, April 11, 2025: US President Trump's 90-day tariff pause, a steep 145 per cent levy on Chinese goods, continued FII outflows, and TCS’s below-than-expected Q4 results are likely to weigh on Indian benchmarks — Nifty50 and Sensex.

 

Despite this, GIFT Nifty futures signaled a gap-up start, rising 451 points to 22,931 as of 6:32 AM.

 

In the previous session, April 9, Indian markets ended in the red after the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent, and shifted its policy stance from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’. The move signalled a focus on supporting growth amid global volatility. Still, the BSE Sensex declined 379.93 points (0.51 per cent) to 73,847.15, while the Nifty50 fell 136.70 points (0.61 per cent) to 22,399.15.

 

 

ALSO READ | Home, auto loans turn cheaper after RBI cuts policy repo rate by 25 bps

 

Considering these factors, here are the top 6 cues for trading on Friday:

 

Global cues

 

Asia-Pacific markets tumbled on Friday, mirroring Wall Street’s renewed sell-off as escalating trade tensions between the US and China triggered a global risk-off sentiment.

 

ASX 200 declined 2 per cent, while Nikkei suffered a steep 5.2 per cent loss. The broader Topix index also slid 5 per cent. The Kospi dropped 1.9 per cent.

 

The market downturn followed a sharp pullback on Wall Street, where investors reacted to rising uncertainty despite a temporary easing of US trade measures. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of new ‘reciprocal’ tariff rates on imports from most countries.

 

Adding to the tension, the White House confirmed Thursday that the cumulative tariff rate on Chinese goods will now reach 145 per cent. This includes a newly implemented 125 per cent duty layered over a 20 per cent tariff tied to the ongoing fentanyl crisis.

 

Despite the volatile backdrop, US stock futures pointed to modest gains ahead of Friday’s open. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3 per cent, Nasdaq 100 futures inched up 0.1 per cent, and Dow Jones futures added about 0.1 per cent.

 

The uptick follows a volatile overnight session on Wall Street, where the major indexes gave up gains from a historic rally the day before. The S&P 500 dropped 3.46 per cent, the Nasdaq fell 4.31 per cent, and the Dow Jones declined 2.5 per cent.

 

Gold hits new record 

 

Gold prices surged nearly 3 per cent to a record high on Thursday, as a weaker dollar and escalating US-China trade tensions boosted safe-haven demand. Spot gold rose 2.5 per cent to $3,158.28 an ounce after touching a peak of $3,171.49. US gold futures jumped 3.3 per cent to $3,179.40.

 

ALSO READ | Gold hits record high as US-China trade war intensifies, dollar weakens

 

Meanwhile, crude oil prices dropped over 3 per cent, weighed down by President Trump’s sharp tariff hike on China. US crude fell $2.28 to $60.07 a barrel, while Brent slid $2.15 to $63.33. 

CPI, IIP data

 

Following the RBI MPC meet, markets now await March inflation data. India's annual inflation eased to 3.62 per cent in February 2025 from 4.26 per cent in January, below the expected 4 per cent.   

AlLSO READ | US remained the outlier in January with crude imports rising, shows data

 

 

All eyes are also on industrial output, after IIP rose 5 per cent Y-o-Y in January, beating forecasts and improving from December’s 3.5 per cent growth.

 

Q4 results

 

India’s largest information technology (IT) firm TCS, on Thursday reported a 1.7 per cent decline in net profit to ₹12,224 crore in Q4FY25, as against ₹12,434 crore in Q4FY24. The fall came on the back of rising uncertainty, delays in decision making, and project ramp-downs. READ MORE

 

Also, Padam Cotton Yarns will release its quarterly results today. 

 

Moody’s Analytics on India GDP 2025 

 

Moody’s Analytics has cut India’s CY25 GDP forecast by 30 bps to 6.1 per cent, citing US tariff threats impacting key sectors like gems, jewellery, medical devices, and textiles. READ MORE

 

Also Read: Tariff-pause market rally to fuel sector churn: Here're movers and shakers

 

Besides, on the institutional activity front, FIIs net sold shares worth ₹4,358.02 crore, while DIIs net bought equities of ₹2,976.66 crore, on April 9.

 

Technicals 

 

For day traders, according to a technical expert, 22350/73650 would act as a key support zone, while 22500/74200 could be the key breakout level for the bulls. 

 

“If the market falls below 22350/73650, it could retest levels of 22250-22200/73300-73000, while a dismissal of 22500/74200 could push the market towards 22650-22700/74500-74700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities.

 

Stocks to watch

 

Biocon: Biocon Biologics has received USFDA approval for Jobevne, a biosimilar of Avastin (bevacizumab), used in cancer treatment.

 

BHEL: The company has signed an MoU with Italy’s Nuovo Pignone International to jointly pursue compressor revamp projects in India’s fertiliser sector, sharing business equally.  ALSO READ | Full List of Top Stocks to Watch Today

 

Sanofi India: MD Rodolfo Hrosz will step down on April 30 and transition to another role within the Sanofi group. He will become a Non-Executive Director effective May 1.