Vodafone Idea stock ready for over 20% surge, suggests chart

Technical analyst at Bajaj Broking is bullish on Vodafone Idea stock as it generated a breakout above a falling channel, and is seen sustaining above its 200-DMA.

Vodafone Idea stock has rallied up to 12 per cent thus far in April amid the broader market pullback. Hopes of a favourable Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) due assessment has also aided the up move. Despite the gains the stock still trades roughly 11 per cent in loss on a year-till-date basis.  However, going ahead, technical analyst at Bajaj Broking are optimistic on the future prospects for the stock, and expect Vodafone Idea shares to gain up to 21.5 per cent and hit levels of ₹11.60.

Technical view on Vodafone Idea stock by Bajaj Broking

"The stock has undergone a corrective phase over the past 3 - 4 months and is currently rebounding after consolidating near the crucial support zone, thus offers a favourable risk - reward set up for the next leg of up move," said the analyst in a report.  The report explains that Vodafone Idea stock has rebounded from the support levels of ₹8 – ₹8.50 which serves as a crucial support area - being the confluence of the multiple technical factors - such as 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous August 2025 - January 2026 up move (₹6.1- - ₹12.80), and the 200-day moving average (200-DMA) placed around ₹9 levels, which has historically acted as strong demand area for the stock. 

(Source: Bajaj Broking)

 

  Further justifying the bullish stance, the analyst highlights that the stock recently generated a breakout above a falling channel (shown in the chart above) and is seen sustaining above its 200-DMA signalling strength.  Bajaj Broking expects the Vodafone Idea stock to resume its uptrend and head towards ₹11.6 levels in the coming months being the 80 per cent retracement of the recent decline of the last 3 months from ₹12.80 - ₹8.10 levels.  "On the momentum front, the daily 14 periods RSI is in uptrend and sustaining above its 9 periods average thus validates positive bias in the stock," the report added.  READ | Nestle India up 3% on strong Q4, hits 52-wk high; brokerages see 15% upside 

Stock in focus ahead of AGR dues reassessment

Vodafone Idea stock has been in focus since the telecom company received government relief for its dues and liabilities.  The Union Cabinet granted relief to Vodafone Idea based on the Supreme Court order and 'froze' its Adjusted Gross Revenue or AGR dues at ₹87,695 crore for a period ranging from FY2006-07 to FY2018-19.  The telecom department expects the AGR reassessment for the company to be completed by June. 

Motilal Oswal on Vodafone Idea Share

  Analysts at Motilal Oswal expect telecom service providers to raise tariffs by at least 15 per cent in the July quarter, in order to prevent a decline in average revenue per user (Arpu) by ₹10. This could entail a 2 - 5 per cent cut in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) for FY27 for all players.  The brokerage believes that the impact on Vodafone Idea could be harsher with a 15 per cent hit on Ebitda, and a delay in tariff could also push the next round to further than July 2029. READ MORE  Headline tariffs have been raised by 10-20 per cent every two years, since 2019, making the timing of these events crucial, the brokerage highlighted.  Disclaimer: The views expressed by the brokerage/ analyst in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.