Will Brent crude oil prices crash to $50 a barrel mark in 2026?

OPEC+, according to a Rabobank International note, will respond to lower prices through supply cuts or through the refined products market

Brent crude oil prices are likely to remain tepid in 2026, suggests a recent note by Rabobank International. Their current forecast sees Brent at $60 a barrel (bbl) in Q1, then average $57 for Q2 and Q3 of 2026, before picking up in Q4 again to $59. 

 

"Our current WTI crude forecast is that prices will trade down to $56.5 in Q1, then average $53.5 for Q2 and Q3 of 2026, rising to $55 in Q4," wrote Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit, both senior energy strategists at Rabobank International in their note.

 

In the last one year, Brent crude oil prices have dropped around 17 per cent to $61.5 levels despite geopolitical concerns and US trade tariffs, data shows. The downward pressure on prices, according to analysts, stems from a growing supply-demand imbalance.  

 

 

The International Energy Agency forecasts a record 3.8 million barrel per day (mb/d) imbalance for 2026, which outstrips the 2.4m b/d oversupply witnessed in 2020. Many other analysts are forecasting for Brent crude oil prices to drop and average $55/bbl or lower amid oversupply fears in 2026, reports suggest.

 

Here are some key factors that will shape crude oil prices in 2026.

 

Ceasefire or Russia-Ukraine peace deal: DeLaura and Schmit expect the two nations to announce a ceasefire or a peace-deal in 2026, which according to them, will lead to lifting of sanctions on Russian oil companies and energy exports will be peeled off and unwound in stages.

 

“Thus, the flow of stranded Russian barrels will find homes in China or India more easily and avoid the multi-step ship to ship transfer process with shell companies and mixing oil or fuels in dark inventories. Additionally, any ceasefire would mean that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and oil terminals would halt, and thus capacity would be restored for Russian oil and products to sail unhindered,” Rabobank said. 

Brent crude oil prices

 

Additional supply: Another source of 'unneeded supply', Rabobank said, could be from South American producers like Guyana and Brazil, which continue to expand production throughout the year. However, supply increases from the South American producers will be offset by a likely drop in US production. 

 

The EIA expects US production to average 13.61 million b/d on average for 2025, dropping to 13.53 million barrels per day for 2026??' an 80k b/d decrease.

 

"We are forecasting a steeper drop of 180k b/d in 2026 and 200k b/d in 2027 from lower oil prices and higher US drilling breakeven costs from steel tariffs," Rabobank said. 

 

Slower demand growth: One of the most important reasons for tepid prices amid an 'oversupply' situation, Rabobank said, is that the demand for oil is slowing. Diesel demand, jet fuel demand, and heavy marine fuels are still increasing, albeit at slower rates than the last twenty years, according to the Rabobank note. 

 

"The decrease is mainly gasoline. Gasoline demand is expected to peak in 2028 by our forecasts, led by China’s incredible rise of BEV sales, and Europe also switching toward electric vehicles," the note said.

 

OPEC+ response: OPEC+, according to Rabobank, will respond to lower prices through supply cuts or through the refined products market. Already in November 2025, eight OPEC members decided to pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026 after signs of oil glut.

 

Saudi Arabia, the report said, has shown multiple times over the past decade that they will rally their allies and try to wrest control of prices through cuts. 

 

“Production cuts also mean that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait do not have finance the upkeep and development of oil fields for spare capacity. Less spare capacity aids the longer term goal of tighter oil markets, and thus higher pricing. In a flattening growth market, new supply has to be ruled and controlled with an iron fist to keep prices high,” DeLaura and Schmit wrote.