Q: A little birdie told me that Mohd Rafi is one of your favourite playback singers. One of his songs is: “Aai dil hai mushkil jeena yahan, zara hatke, zara bach ke, ye hai Bombay meri jaan.” Do you think that quite sums up the market mood right now – a bit nervous and a bit cautious?
>Difficult to escape the pain; most investors would have been hurt Q: Do you think that the damage done to the markets in terms of levels and the overall investor sentiment - be it FII and/or first time retail investors is irreparable or will take a long time to mend?
>Difficult to say the pain/ market downside is over at the global level
>No evidence that bear market will be short-lived
>Bounce-back due; can be led by a fall in crude oil prices
>Macros and global developments will not resolve quickly Q: Are the markets overdoing the nervousness? The sharp fall from the top is nothing that the markets/ investors have not seen earlier.
>Most ‘new’ investors would not have seen anything like the recent market crash
>Most investors put in money at the right time; made good money
>Quick returns made them bullish; a lot of pain still to be endured Q: Where do you see the maximum pain coming from, in terms of sectors, right now and 3-6 mts down the line?
>Banking sector will see more pain
>Rising interest rates and inflation, shrinking household expenses are not good for lenders
>Discretionary spending will fall Q: Where do you find comfort while investing at the current levels?
>Small companies will ride out the current scenario better than their large-cap peers
>20% of the Nifty stocks will not perform for the foreseeable future
>65 - 70% of the stocks will give 15% compounded growth
>Best returns from the Nifty are behind us for the next 12 months
>Markets can remain flat, or fall more from the current levels Q: So is there any silver lining amid all this gloom and doom? How are you approaching the markets now – buying selectively or remaining a fence-sitter?
>Great time to buy selectively; easy money and return phase is over
>Markets are now making me work hard in identifying investment-worthy stocks Q: But retail investors do not have access to company management. So, how do they research and invest the way you do?
>Fair amount of information available on the internet
>Investors need to be disciplined; understand risk and portfolio construct
>Smart stock-picking alone cannot make you rich