Page 4 - Cea

Developing economies' quota in IMF key to global financial stability: CEA

The increase of developing economies quota in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) can play a pivotal role in safeguarding global financial stability by enhancing the multilateral lending agency's permanent resources, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Wednesday. Participating in an event organised by the finance ministry, Nageswaran said the reforms of international financial institutions have to go beyond the World Bank and multilateral development banks (MDBs). "The executive board of the IMF has proposed to the Board of Governors that a 50 per cent quota increase (should be) allocated to members in proportion to their current quotas," he said. The 16th General Review of Quotas (GRQ) is likely to provide a greater say to developing economies in the International Monetary Fund. "This quota increase can play a pivotal role in safeguarding global financial stability by enhancing the IMF's permanent resources and reducing its reliance on borrowed resources," he ...

Climate action imposes heavy cost on developing nations, says CEA

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said climate action, including energy transition, impose a heavy cost on developing nations. Observing that emerging countries are already grappling with twin challenges of poverty alleviation and economic growth, he said climate change and energy transition are an added burden. Energy transition must bear three costs, including rise in costs of production from rising fuel cost and higher costs of new energy sources as they replace traditional sources, he said at an event organised by Centre for Social and Economic Progress. He suggested that developing countries need to build the ship even as they are sailing. India has announced that it aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 and meet 50 per cent of its electricity requirements from renewable energy sources by 2030. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced more ambitious targets for 2030, including installing 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, reducing the emiss

RBI may hold fire even if Fed hikes rates twice: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das recently said at the Business Standard's BFSI Insight Summit domestic factors determined India's monetary policy

Indian economy poised to grow at average 6.5% per annum over 2023-30: CEA

The Indian economy is poised to grow at an average of 6.5 per cent annually between 2023 and 2030, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday. Speaking at the BCC&I Indo-Pacific Economic Conclave, Nageswaran said the global economy is going to witness a period of uncertainty, and India has to plug into the global supply chain and make itself attractive for the China-plus one strategy. "We have had 9.1 per cent growth in FY22 and 7.2 per cent in FY23. We are poised to grow 6.5 per cent per annum on average for this year and the remainder of the decade. Why I am talking about 6.5 per cent and not 7.5-8 per cent? It is because we are not experiencing the kind of global growth that we experienced between 2003 and 2008," the CEA said. India has made progress in the last eight years as it has now become the fifth largest economy from the 10th rank globally in 2014, and within the end of this decade, it will become the third largest economy in the world, he ...

Inclusion of Indian bonds in JP Morgan index to widen investor base: CEA

The inclusion of G-Secs will be staggered over a 10-month period from June 28, 2024 to March 31, 2025, indicating one per cent increment on its index weight

CEA rejects 'statistical discrepancy' criticism on Q1 growth numbers

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has rejected criticism of 'statistical discrepancy' in the first quarter GDP data, saying when the same statistical authority reported the severest contraction in the first quarter of 2020, the naysayers had called it credible as it suited their narrative. "In Q1 of 2023-24, the discrepancy of 2.8 per cent has a plus sign. This indicates that the expenditure side has explained only 97.2 per cent of the income side. It does not mean that the 2.8 per cent that has yet to be explained does not exist," Nageswaran said in an op-ed article. "It exists and lends itself to being explained in subsequent quarters. Similarly, the preceding eight quarters have shown negative discrepancies. It means that the expenditure side has been over-explained and needs to be reconciled," the article co-authored by senior government economist Rajiv Mishra said. Over a long period, the negatives and positives offset each other, it said, adding that between 1Q FY12

India faces a world of lower growth

In a shifting global landscape marked by tepid growth prospects, India will find it challenging to grow at over 7 per cent

Turning jobseekers into job-givers key goal of govt: CEA Nageswaran

Turning jobseekers into job-givers is an important goal of the government and many steps have been taken in recent years to achieve this objective, said Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran. "It relieves pressure on the job market. In terms of financing, the credit guarantee scheme that was launched during Covid, and continued until this year, has done a wonderful job in ensuring that the MSME space remains vibrant," he said at an event organised by Bharatiya Yuva Shakti Trust (BYST) here on Wednesday. Citing a study, he said the unified payments interface is helping create a credit eco-system, as it provides information to banks about the granular behaviour of nano-entrepreneurs. This information flow will encourage banks to increase their lending because the credit footprints created will help them take key financial decisions, he said. "In the 202324 Budget, the government made a very important announcement: those small entrepreneurs who want to claim deductible business

CEA Anantha Nageswaran outlines growth strategy in the time of polycrisis

CEA said that at a time when multiple routine tasks could be handled by technology and AI, India needed to adapt to these growth challenges in terms of the education system

Average capital investment in many sectors growing at more than 20%: CEA

The average capital investment in many sectors is growing at more than 20 per cent, and there are multiple indicators pointing to a momentum in the economy, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Thursday. Also, he exuded confidence that the finance ministry's target of narrowing the fiscal deficit to 5.9 in the current financial year and to 4.5 percent in 2025-26 would be achieved. Addressing FICCI's special interactive session on 'Indian economy@100 - Journey to the Amrit Kaal', the CEA said that last year many sectors saw average capital investment growing at more than 20 per cent. In fact, in the hotels and hospitality sector, there was an 80 per cent growth in CAPEX in FY 23 over FY 22, he said. "The total employment in the hospitality sector which was 4 crore pre-pandemic declined to 2.9 crore during the pandemic years, and now it has increased to 4.5 crore exceeding the pre-pandemic data. The hospitality sector now employs 50 lakh people more than it employ

GDP growth for FY 2023 was 7.2%, surpassing expectations, says CEA

The Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, Dr V Anantha Nageswaran, on Monday said the real GDP growth for the year ending March 2023 was 7.2 per cent, which surpassed expectations, as the underlying momentum in the economy was quite strong. During an interaction with the Industry, organised by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) here, Nageswaran explained the current state of the Indian economy and said the government was optimistic about its medium-term performance. Addressing the gathering, he said while goods exports were on the weaker side in 2022-23 due to the war in Ukraine and oil price rise, services exports did very well for the country. "We have a good story to share about the Indian economy. The real GDP growth for the year ending March 2023 was 7.2 per cent, surpassing expectations. The underlying momentum in the economy is quite strong. We expect the final number to be even higher than 7.2 per cent," Nageswaran said. He ...

India can look for another year of solid economic performance: CEA

Enthused by higher than expected GDP number in the fourth quarter of FY23, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India can look for another year of solid economic performance. India's economy grew by 6.1 per cent in the January-March quarter of 2022-23, pushing the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent on account of better performance by agriculture, manufacturing, mining and construction sectors. Briefing media on the quarterly number, the CEA said the risk to the projected 6.5 per cent GDP number is evenly balanced and there is a good chance of this number may be exceeded in the current fiscal. "So, we are very pleased to have been able to present a story of sustained economic momentum combined with macroeconomic, financial and fiscal stability, and we look forward to another year of solid economic performance by India," he said. Last week, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth for 2022-23 is expected to be more than the advance estimate of 7

Govt plans to link tax collected at source with tax deducted at source: CEA

The government is attempting to link tax collected at source for payments made by individuals with tax deducted from their income sources, a move that will help in ensuring cash flows of the individual taxpayers are not impacted, according to a senior official. The move also comes at a time when the government is set to impose a 20 per cent Tax Collection at Source (TCS) on certain international spends from July 1. Generally, TCS is the tax collected by a seller at the time of sale of goods or services while Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) is the amount levied as tax by the government. The government has exempted transactions up to Rs 7 lakh from the TCS, providing relief to small taxpayers. So, bulk of the transactions made by most will not be covered under 20 per cent TCS, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has said. Defending the decision, he said, "And it (government) also attempts to link the TCS with your TDS such that if there are TCS payment made by you it has t

Directing regulation!

Recent issue of a direction by the Ministry of Power to the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission does not augur well for either regulatory autonomy or for the longer-term development of sector

Signs of private sector investment cycle unfolding, says CEA Nageswaran

"We do see signs of corporate sector beginning to make investment. There are some new investment announcement," he said at an event organised by CII

Indian economy to grow at 6.5% in coming decade: Chief Economic Advisor

The Indian economy is likely to grow at the rate of 6.5 per cent in the coming decade on the back of the turnaround in financial and investment cycle, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Wednesday. Addressing an event here, Nageswaran further said going forward, global exports growth volumes may be somewhat tepid in terms of their growth rates due to the kind of uncertainties the world is facing. "So, I think the restoration of the financial, credit and the investment cycle in the commercial sector and the real estate sector will probably see us growing on an average of six and a half per cent in the coming decade," he said. The Asia's third-largest economy recorded year-on-year growth of 4.4 per cent in October-December, down from 11.2 per cent a year back and 6.3 per cent in the preceding quarter. The finance ministry's Economic Survey has projected the economic growth to be 6.5 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal beginning April 2023, while the RBI has projected

US bank crisis will have little impact on India: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

Says lessons for India have not changed, banking sector should remain mindful of duration risk and credit risk, which then includes concentration risk

Keep 'margins of safety' amid global turmoil, says CEA Nageswaran

Nageswaran says IMF's latest estimates for global growth appear outdated

It's not 'K': CEA Nageswaran says urban recovery faster than rural

The CEA said there was still pent-up demand in the system, as in the past three years, India had been growing below potential

GDP growth may exceed 7% this fiscal, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday expressed hope that the GDP growth for the current financial year will exceed the projected 7 per cent in view of the expected revision of high frequency data. On Tuesday, the second advance estimate released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) maintained the growth projection of 7 per cent as was projected in the first advance estimate which was released in January. "Given the high frequency indicators and the pace at which they are recovering, I do believe that the current year's (GDP numbers)... are more likely to (be) revised upward than downward," he said here. Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 159.71 lakh crore as against the first revised estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 149.26 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2021-22, the NSO had said. The growth slowed to 4.4 per cent in the ...