Page 4 - Cea

CEA rejects 'statistical discrepancy' criticism on Q1 growth numbers

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has rejected criticism of 'statistical discrepancy' in the first quarter GDP data, saying when the same statistical authority reported the severest contraction in the first quarter of 2020, the naysayers had called it credible as it suited their narrative. "In Q1 of 2023-24, the discrepancy of 2.8 per cent has a plus sign. This indicates that the expenditure side has explained only 97.2 per cent of the income side. It does not mean that the 2.8 per cent that has yet to be explained does not exist," Nageswaran said in an op-ed article. "It exists and lends itself to being explained in subsequent quarters. Similarly, the preceding eight quarters have shown negative discrepancies. It means that the expenditure side has been over-explained and needs to be reconciled," the article co-authored by senior government economist Rajiv Mishra said. Over a long period, the negatives and positives offset each other, it said, adding that between 1Q FY12

India faces a world of lower growth

In a shifting global landscape marked by tepid growth prospects, India will find it challenging to grow at over 7 per cent

Turning jobseekers into job-givers key goal of govt: CEA Nageswaran

Turning jobseekers into job-givers is an important goal of the government and many steps have been taken in recent years to achieve this objective, said Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran. "It relieves pressure on the job market. In terms of financing, the credit guarantee scheme that was launched during Covid, and continued until this year, has done a wonderful job in ensuring that the MSME space remains vibrant," he said at an event organised by Bharatiya Yuva Shakti Trust (BYST) here on Wednesday. Citing a study, he said the unified payments interface is helping create a credit eco-system, as it provides information to banks about the granular behaviour of nano-entrepreneurs. This information flow will encourage banks to increase their lending because the credit footprints created will help them take key financial decisions, he said. "In the 202324 Budget, the government made a very important announcement: those small entrepreneurs who want to claim deductible business

CEA Anantha Nageswaran outlines growth strategy in the time of polycrisis

CEA said that at a time when multiple routine tasks could be handled by technology and AI, India needed to adapt to these growth challenges in terms of the education system

Average capital investment in many sectors growing at more than 20%: CEA

The average capital investment in many sectors is growing at more than 20 per cent, and there are multiple indicators pointing to a momentum in the economy, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Thursday. Also, he exuded confidence that the finance ministry's target of narrowing the fiscal deficit to 5.9 in the current financial year and to 4.5 percent in 2025-26 would be achieved. Addressing FICCI's special interactive session on 'Indian economy@100 - Journey to the Amrit Kaal', the CEA said that last year many sectors saw average capital investment growing at more than 20 per cent. In fact, in the hotels and hospitality sector, there was an 80 per cent growth in CAPEX in FY 23 over FY 22, he said. "The total employment in the hospitality sector which was 4 crore pre-pandemic declined to 2.9 crore during the pandemic years, and now it has increased to 4.5 crore exceeding the pre-pandemic data. The hospitality sector now employs 50 lakh people more than it employ

GDP growth for FY 2023 was 7.2%, surpassing expectations, says CEA

The Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, Dr V Anantha Nageswaran, on Monday said the real GDP growth for the year ending March 2023 was 7.2 per cent, which surpassed expectations, as the underlying momentum in the economy was quite strong. During an interaction with the Industry, organised by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) here, Nageswaran explained the current state of the Indian economy and said the government was optimistic about its medium-term performance. Addressing the gathering, he said while goods exports were on the weaker side in 2022-23 due to the war in Ukraine and oil price rise, services exports did very well for the country. "We have a good story to share about the Indian economy. The real GDP growth for the year ending March 2023 was 7.2 per cent, surpassing expectations. The underlying momentum in the economy is quite strong. We expect the final number to be even higher than 7.2 per cent," Nageswaran said. He ...

India can look for another year of solid economic performance: CEA

Enthused by higher than expected GDP number in the fourth quarter of FY23, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India can look for another year of solid economic performance. India's economy grew by 6.1 per cent in the January-March quarter of 2022-23, pushing the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent on account of better performance by agriculture, manufacturing, mining and construction sectors. Briefing media on the quarterly number, the CEA said the risk to the projected 6.5 per cent GDP number is evenly balanced and there is a good chance of this number may be exceeded in the current fiscal. "So, we are very pleased to have been able to present a story of sustained economic momentum combined with macroeconomic, financial and fiscal stability, and we look forward to another year of solid economic performance by India," he said. Last week, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth for 2022-23 is expected to be more than the advance estimate of 7

Govt plans to link tax collected at source with tax deducted at source: CEA

The government is attempting to link tax collected at source for payments made by individuals with tax deducted from their income sources, a move that will help in ensuring cash flows of the individual taxpayers are not impacted, according to a senior official. The move also comes at a time when the government is set to impose a 20 per cent Tax Collection at Source (TCS) on certain international spends from July 1. Generally, TCS is the tax collected by a seller at the time of sale of goods or services while Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) is the amount levied as tax by the government. The government has exempted transactions up to Rs 7 lakh from the TCS, providing relief to small taxpayers. So, bulk of the transactions made by most will not be covered under 20 per cent TCS, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has said. Defending the decision, he said, "And it (government) also attempts to link the TCS with your TDS such that if there are TCS payment made by you it has t

Directing regulation!

Recent issue of a direction by the Ministry of Power to the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission does not augur well for either regulatory autonomy or for the longer-term development of sector

Signs of private sector investment cycle unfolding, says CEA Nageswaran

"We do see signs of corporate sector beginning to make investment. There are some new investment announcement," he said at an event organised by CII

Indian economy to grow at 6.5% in coming decade: Chief Economic Advisor

The Indian economy is likely to grow at the rate of 6.5 per cent in the coming decade on the back of the turnaround in financial and investment cycle, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Wednesday. Addressing an event here, Nageswaran further said going forward, global exports growth volumes may be somewhat tepid in terms of their growth rates due to the kind of uncertainties the world is facing. "So, I think the restoration of the financial, credit and the investment cycle in the commercial sector and the real estate sector will probably see us growing on an average of six and a half per cent in the coming decade," he said. The Asia's third-largest economy recorded year-on-year growth of 4.4 per cent in October-December, down from 11.2 per cent a year back and 6.3 per cent in the preceding quarter. The finance ministry's Economic Survey has projected the economic growth to be 6.5 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal beginning April 2023, while the RBI has projected

US bank crisis will have little impact on India: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

Says lessons for India have not changed, banking sector should remain mindful of duration risk and credit risk, which then includes concentration risk

Keep 'margins of safety' amid global turmoil, says CEA Nageswaran

Nageswaran says IMF's latest estimates for global growth appear outdated

It's not 'K': CEA Nageswaran says urban recovery faster than rural

The CEA said there was still pent-up demand in the system, as in the past three years, India had been growing below potential

GDP growth may exceed 7% this fiscal, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday expressed hope that the GDP growth for the current financial year will exceed the projected 7 per cent in view of the expected revision of high frequency data. On Tuesday, the second advance estimate released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) maintained the growth projection of 7 per cent as was projected in the first advance estimate which was released in January. "Given the high frequency indicators and the pace at which they are recovering, I do believe that the current year's (GDP numbers)... are more likely to (be) revised upward than downward," he said here. Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 159.71 lakh crore as against the first revised estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 149.26 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2021-22, the NSO had said. The growth slowed to 4.4 per cent in the ...

CEA Nageswaran says 7% growth forecast for current fiscal 'very realistic'

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday said high frequency data indicate buoyant economic growth momentum and the 7 per cent GDP growth estimate for the current fiscal is very realistic. He also said that there are enough signs that manufacturing is in good health. "Inflation is softening and the pass through from wholesale prices has run its course we do have some uncertainty related to monsoon because of El Nino activity we need to be ready with both supply side and monetary policy measures in the course of the next financial year," Nageswaran told reporters. According to him, the GDP growth forecast of 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal is well within the range of forecast by other agencies like OECD and ADB but there are downside risks. "We need to be prepared for tighter financial conditions globally, weather-related uncertainties and geopolitical factors. 2023-24 may not see a big ticker shock as we saw in early months of 2022-23 as the war broke out in 2022 bu

Former CEAs would do well to be less political

The utterances of former advisors who have turned political don't fully pass the smell test. It would help if they are a bit more respectful of their profession, which demands neutrality

PM Awas, Jal Jeevan to create rural jobs, justify MGNREGS cut: CEA

The CEA also said that as nominal and real GDP growth improve, many more urban jobs will be created and that will also absorb more of the rural workforce

Waiting for private sector to take the lead on capex: CEA Nageswaran

'Not necessary or healthy for public sector to keep expanding capital investment,' he says

India's public spending could crowd out private spending, says CEA

India's chief economic adviser said on Friday that the current pace of public spending in the country could crowd out private spending