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A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months , according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement. However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said. The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said. The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July
Adverse agronomical conditions, excess channel inventory weigh on domestic market volume offtake
IMD predicts above-normal temperatures this year
Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has asked officials to prepare a comprehensive mitigation plan due to the possibility of drought this year, an official said on Thursday. The official said Fadnavis cited media reports of the United States government's weather agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicating a possibility of 'El Nino' condition developing late summer. As per weather experts, an 'El Nino' condition is when surface water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than average and the east winds get weaker, bringing about extremes that include flooding or drought. "There is likelihood of a drought situation this year and the government needs to be well prepared to ensure people's hardship is minimised," the official said. The directives came at the cabinet meeting earlier this week, he added.
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Rain patterns in India are also expected to get altered with the return of El Niño in 2023
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"The first half of the 2022 monsoon season is expected to fare better than the latter. Monsoon is likely to make a decent start during the onset month of June," Skymet said.
India's southwest monsoon this year is expected to be 'normal' at 100 per cent of the long period average
The latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts show that sea surface temperatures might further cool, enhancing the probability of La Niña after July
He said that IMD has impact-based forecast in all districts now
A strong El Nino could have an adverse impact on India's southwest monsoon that starts from June as almost 80% of El Nino years have seen 'below normal' rains
Brazil may be able to supply more soybeans than usual in January, helping feed China's appetite for the oilseed as buyers in the Asian nation snub made-in-America crops
Overall, the monsoon till August 30 has been 6% less than normal
Farmers are bracing up for short duration of agricultural crops this season following forecast of El Nino incidence resulting into low rainfalls and fear of crop damage during the second half of the four-month monsoon season this year.While announcing the forecast of 96 per cent of the Long Term Average (LPA) which means "normal", the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday feared occurrence of El Nino in August. This means, the rainfalls will remain below normal in the August - September period, the crucial stage of germination and crop development."Five - 10 per cent of diversion in favour of short duration crops is possible this season as farmers might be looking to mitigate the risk of crop damage in the later part of the monsoon season. However, farmers with limited alternatives will continue with normal season crops like earlier. Most importantly, the progress of rainfalls would determine the fate of kharif crops this season," said M K Dhanuka, Managing Director, ...
It is being caused by a warms of the surface waters in Pacific Ocean, to continue for next 2 weeks
The central Pacific is predicted to continue to warm, with neutral conditions likely for the southern hemisphere autumn
India's monsoon season starts from June and extends up till September
An evolving El Nino is also equally harmful for Indian monsoon as experience from 2014 shows
La Niña, which causes bountiful rain, is ruled out for now