RBI failed to gauge a greater-than-anticipated contraction in gross-fixed capital formation and continuing weak activity, especially in the rural areas.
"The potential slowdown of the economy will be determined by the duration of the lockdown, and the economic policy choices taken to ensure a safe recovery," said Tanvee Gupta Jain
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Four out of the six parameters- investment rate, bank credit offtake, industrial production of capital goods and new investment projects are pointers to deteriorating investment scenario
This compares to 5 per cent growth in 2019
Total loss in output is estimated to be around Rs 6 trillion based on estimated GDP at current prices for FY20
Falling GDP in China is virtually unprecedented and, in the near term at least, these numbers look worse than most previous hypothetical 'hard-landing' scenarios
According to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2020, a growth rate of 2.5 per cent is possible in 2020
The ADB said growth would pick up to 6.5 per cent in 2020-21 with "supportive" policies, but also said it would be lower than its earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year
Says forces driving up inflation 'appear to be transient'
The RBI on Thursday kept repo rate unchanged at the current 5.15% level but revised GDP growth projection for the current financial year 2019-20 to 5%
The picture is much worse than the 4.5% headline number
While there have been a rash of growth estimate cuts, including a 0.70 percentage points reduction by the RBI last month to 6.1%, the Japanese brokerage's estimate is so far the lowest
Growth is expected to gradually recover to 6.9 per cent in 2020-21 and to 7.2 per cent in the following year, it said
Abrupt declines in manufacturing and investment reflect uncertainty ahead of general elections, subdued lending by banks and other financial institutions, ADB said.
The medium-term fiscal policy statement, tabled as part of the Union Budget 2019-20, forecasts nominal GDP for 2019-20 to grow 11 per cent year-on-year
It said the rising global trade tension will also have an adverse impact on exports
'Growth headwinds swiftly turn attention to the likely policy response. We expect monetary policy to do much of the heavy lifting, given limited fiscal leeway'
In the January-March quarter, India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at the fastest pace in seven quarters at 7.7%