Page 4 - Icra

Icra projects India's Q4 growth at 6.9%, FY25 GDP expansion at 6.3%

ICRA on Monday projected India's GDP growth at 6.9 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3 per cent for the full 2024-25 fiscal, undershooting the the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February. In February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. With economic growth in June, September and December quarter at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively. To achieve the NSO's projected 6.5 per cent growth in FY25, the GDP growth in Q4 or March quarter should be 7.6 per cent. The NSO is scheduled to release the provisional estimates of FY'25 GDP and quarterly estimates for Q4 on May 30. ICRA in its note said it projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter. Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 FY2025, ICRA projects a sharp

Icra projects India's Q4 growth at 6.9%, FY25 GDP expansion at 6.3%

ICRA on Monday projected India's GDP growth at 6.9 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3 per cent for the full 2024-25 fiscal, undershooting the the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February. In February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. With economic growth in June, September and December quarter at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively. To achieve the NSO's projected 6.5 per cent growth in FY25, the GDP growth in Q4 or March quarter should be 7.6 per cent. The NSO is scheduled to release the provisional estimates of FY'25 GDP and quarterly estimates for Q4 on May 31. ICRA in its note said it projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter. Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 FY2025, ICRA projects a sharp

ICRA expects five co-working segment IPOs raising over ₹7,000 cr by 2026

Rating agency ICRA on Wednesday said that India's co-working segment may witness five maiden public issues in the next 12-18 months to raise more than Rs 7,000 crore. In a statement, ICRA said that India's flexible (flex)/co-working office space portfolio is expected to increase to around 125 million square feet by March 2027 (from around 80 million square feet as of December 2024) for the top six cities (Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi-NCR, Hyderabad, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Pune). "This segment, which has seen one successful initial public offer (IPO) in 2024, is set to witness five major IPOs in the next 12-18 months, which are projected to raise over Rs 7,000 crore," it added. Co-working operator Awfis has already launched its IPO and is listed on the stock exchanges. Smartworks, WeWork India and IndiQube Spaces Ltd have already filed the preliminary documents with markets regulator SEBI to launch their IPOs. Anupama Reddy, Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate ...

Big builders likely to tighten grip as realty mkt consolidates around them

Homebuyers prefer grade-A builders, delivery of homes key accountability factor

US tariff jitters: Auto part exporters may take a Rs 4,500 crore hit

Exporters with manufacturing operations within the US would also be partly insulated from the new tariffs

Auto part makers may lose Rs 4.5K crore due to trade tariffs: Icra

Leading auto component manufacturers could take a revenue hit of up to Rs 4,500 crore in the current fiscal due to dip in overseas shipments stemming from the tariff-related impact, ratings firm Icra said on Monday. Icra expects the revenue growth of Indian auto component industry, represented by sample of 46 auto ancillaries with aggregate annual revenues of over Rs 3 lakh crore in FY2024, to ease to 6-8 per cent in FY2026, against 8-10 per cent projected earlier, if there is mid-to-high single-digit revenue decline in exports to the US, stemming from the tariff-related impact, it said in a statement. The steep increase in import tariffs imposed recently by the US is estimated to burden the entire supply chain with an incremental cost of around Rs 9,000 crore, which will need to be borne by the US consumers, US importers, and Indian exporters, it said. The extent to which the Indian auto component exporters share the cost burden will be contingent on their competitiveness and the .

Engines stalled, planes grounded: ICRA alerts turbulence in Indian aviation

Indian airlines remain grounded by engine problems and labour gaps, with recovery not expected before FY2026, finds credit rating agency ICRA

Borrowers may gain from lower rates under RBI draft co-lending norms: ICRA

RBI has proposed that the blended rate of interest is to be calculated as an average rate of interest derived from the interest rates charged by respective funding regulated entities

Rail sector revenue to grow 5% in FY26, wagon makers drive gains: Icra

The Indian railway sector is expected to see a moderate revenue growth of 5 per cent in FY'26, driven primarily by strong performance from wagon manufacturers, while construction entities in the sector may witness slower growth, an analysis by credit rating agency ICRA said. The report highlights that the weighted average operating margins for the sector will remain healthy at around 12 per cent in FY26, supported by operating leverage benefits and stable input prices. This comes amid sustained government investments in railway infrastructure, with the capital outlay increasing by 130 per cent over the past five years to Rs 2.52 lakh crore in 2025-26 (Budget Estimates), a statement said. However, budgetary support has grown only modestly by 2 per cent between FY2024 and FY2026, indicating a potential slowdown in funding momentum, the rating agency said. Suprio Banerjee, Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, at ICRA, noted that railway sector entities have been key ..

ICRA expects 18-20% growth for airport operators in FY26 on higher traffic

Indian airport operators are expected to see an 18-20 per cent topline year-on-year growth in this fiscal, driven by a sustained improvement in passenger traffic and tariff hike as well as ramp-up in non-aeronautical revenues, ratings agency ICRA said on Thursday. At the same time, ICRA estimates overall air passenger traffic growing at a healthy 7-9 per cent Y-o-Y to reach at 440-450 million in FY26, on the back of an around 10 per cent estimated increase in the just concluded financial year, it said. The overall passenger traffic (domestic and international) is estimated at 412-415 million in FY25, as per ICRA. The ratings agency said its estimation is based on a sample set of airports, including those managed and operated by the Airports Authority of India (AAI), as well as Delhi, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Cochin International Airports, which operate under the public-private partnership (PPP) model. Also, given the capacity bottleneck faced by a few airports, the sector will ...

RBI's growth outlook is optimistic amid global concerns; see 50bps more cut

We expect the GDP growth to print at 6.2 per cent in FY26, marginally below the 6.3 per cent projected by us for FY25, said Aditi Nayar of Icra

Banks may write off stressed loans worth Rs 1.5 trillion in FY26: Icra

Credit growth to expand at 10.8-10.9% on regulatory easing

Regulatory easing to support 10.8% credit growth in FY26: Icra

The incremental credit is likely to rise 10.8 per cent to Rs 19-20.5 lakh crore in the current fiscal compared to Rs 18 lakh crore or a 10.9 per cent growth in 2024-25, according to rating agency Icra. In a release on the Indian banking sector outlook, the agency said it expects the regulatory easing seen in recent months to support a credit expansion of about 10.8 per cent in FY2026. Such measures include the repo rate cut, deferment of proposed changes in the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) framework and additional provisions on infra projects, along with the roll-back of increased risk weights on lending to unsecured consumer credit and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). "Besides this, the durable liquidity infusion by the Reserve Bank of India through open market operations (OMO) by way of purchases of Government bonds and forex swaps with banks, would aid the liquidity and faster transmission of the ongoing cut in policy rates," it said. The persisting challenges in depos

US tariffs not to have any material impact on India's PV exports: ICRA

The automobile sector is not covered in this order since it is already subject to Section 232 tariffs at 25 per cent

Private capex share in economy dipped to decadal low of 33% in FY24: Icra

Domestic rating agency ICRA on Monday said private capital expenditure's share in the overall investments in the economy dipped to a decadal low of 33 per cent in FY24. Among the private companies, it was the unlisted players which were subdued in investments as compared to the listed entities, as per a report. It can be noted that for the last few years, the government has been driving investments, leading to concerns in some quarters over the private sector's absence and its impact on the overall economic activity. The private sector has instead focused on deploying excess cash at reducing loan burdens rather than investing in new facilities, choosing to run at high capacity utilisation. "Weak domestic consumption, especially urban, muted export demand, and the influx of cheap Chinese imports in some sectors, among other factors, restricted the capacity expansion plans of Indian corporates," the agency's chief rating officer K Ravichandran said. Illustrating the importance of ..

Sa-dhan seeks new MFI refinance body, calls for more equity support

Sa-dhan has urged the government to set up a dedicated MFI refinance body and increase flexibility in the India Microfinance Equity Fund to address funding challenges in the microfinance sector

Indian IT services industry to see 4-6% revenue growth in FY26: Icra

IT sector growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term due to global economic headwinds and policy uncertainties in the US and Europe

India's data centre capacity to grow to 2,000-2,100 MW by March 2027: ICRA

India's data centre (DC) operational capacity is expected to increase to 2,000-2,100 MW by March 2027 from around 1,150 MW as of December 2024, on the back of data usage and data localisation initiatives, according to rating agency Icra. Indian data centre players are projected to invest Rs 2-2.3 lakh crore, with a development pipeline of 3-3.5 GW to be delivered over the next 7-10 years. "Driven by AI requirements, the global DC market has already witnessed multiple large deals (>300 MW) signed by hyperscalers and India is expected to follow the trend. This, coupled with favourable regulatory policies and an infrastructure status for the DC sector will support strong growth prospects in India in the coming decade," Anupama Reddy, Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, Icra said. While cloud, 5G rollout, machine learning and internet of things (IoT) are expected to generate enormous data and storage requirements, GenAI-led high computing requirements present a new .

Domestic passenger vehicle sales expected to grow 4-7% in FY26: Icra

Passenger vehicle sales volume in India is expected to grow at a moderate pace of 4-7 per cent in FY26 with most demand drivers remaining neutral or favourable, according to ratings agency Icra. As for two-wheelers, Icra said it estimates the industry volumes to grow at a healthy pace of 6-9 per cent in FY26, following an estimated 11-14 per cent growth in FY25. Passenger vehicle (PV) industry volumes reached an all-time high of 4.2 million units in FY24. In year-to-date (YTD) FY25, wholesale volumes remained stable led by steady production by automobile manufacturers but the industry volume growth has been modest at about 2 per cent against the backdrop of waning replacement demand and high inventory levels, Icra said in a statement. Healthy retails have helped moderate dealer inventory holding in the past few months. Nonetheless the inventory continues to be moderately high, it added. "The industry's growth in FY2025 is expected at 0-2 per cent. Most of the demand drivers for th

India Inc revenue to grow 7-8% in Q4 on demand revival, govt spend: ICRA

Domestic rating agency ICRA on Monday said Indian companies are likely to clock 7-8 per cent revenue growth during the March quarter of the current fiscal year, led by revival in rural demand and uptick in government spending. ICRA expects the private capital expenditure (capex) cycle to remain measured in view of the uncertainties around geopolitical developments and relatively subdued outlook on merchandise exports from India. Nonetheless, certain sunrise sectors such as electronics, semiconductors and niche segments within the automotive space like electric vehicles (EVs) will continue to see a scale-up in investments, in line with various production-linked incentive programmes announced by the Government of India, it said. In a statement, ICRA said the recovery in the operating profit margins (OPM) for India Inc witnessed over the past quarter is likely to be sustained at 18.2-18.4 per cent, supported by an increase in demand, led by improved consumer sentiments. "Rural demand