Page 4 - Icra

Icra pegs India's GDP growth at 6.2% for FY26, down from 6.5% in FY25

Leading rating agency ICRA, in its latest outlook, said India's real GDP growth for 2025-26 will be 6.2 per cent, down from 6.5 per cent in the preceding financial year. Real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is also expected to ease to 6 per cent from 6.4 per cent. Regarding inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be above 3.5 per cent, while the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) will be over 1.8 per cent for the current fiscal, the report added. ICRA has forecast the fiscal deficit to be 4.4 per cent of GDP for 2025-26, with the current account deficit projected at 1.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent during the same period. According to ICRA, rural demand is likely to remain upbeat, aided by Rabi cash flows and above-normal reservoir levels. It also said that the combination of the sizeable income tax relief in the Union budget for 2025-26, rate cuts leading to lower EMIs and moderation in food inflation is expected to boost household disposable incomes. The report added that

Tractor sales in India may grow 4-7% in FTY26 on monsoon boost: ICRA

Tractor sales in India are likely to see a moderate growth of 4-7 per cent in 2025-26 on the back of a favourable monsoon forecast, which is expected to support agricultural production, ratings agency ICRA said on Wednesday. Pre-buying ahead of the TREM V emission norms, proposed to take effect from April 1, 2026, could further aid volume growth, ICRA said in a statement. "The industry wholesale volumes grew at 7 per cent in FY2025, aided by steady demand amid adequate rainfall. In FY2026, the industry is expected to report a growth of 4-7 per cent supported by a favourable monsoon forecast," it said. Citing IMD (India Meteorological Department) forecast of an above-normal precipitation at 105 per cent of the long period average (LPA) during the current monsoon season as per first long-range forecast, ICRA said, favourable monsoon and increased crop production will support industry volumes. "Further, the third advance estimates, released in May 2025, indicate a YoY increase of 7.9

ICRA to acquire risk solution firm Fintellix India for $26 million

ICRA has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Fintellix India, a provider of risk and reporting solutions to global financial institutions, for USD 26 million. In a stock exchange filing, ICRA said its board has granted approval for the acquisition of 100 per cent shareholding in Fintellix India Pvt Ltd for a consideration of INR equivalent to USD 26 million by way of a secondary purchase, pursuant to execution of a share purchase agreement and other transaction documents. Commenting on the development, Ramnath Krishnan, MD & Group CEO of ICRA, said, "With this acquisition, we reiterate our commitment to being a leading risk technology player. This space is fast evolving with increasing regulatory scrutiny in financial markets, and we believe Fintellix and ICRA together will better address the emerging market needs." The rating agency said the acquisition will additionally strengthen ICRA Group's portfolio of credit risk assessment and monitoring tools by adding risk ...

Icra projects 6-8% growth for hospitality, downgrades outlook to 'stable'

Growth of India's hospitality sector is expected to "normalise" at 6-8 per cent in the current financial year, rating agency Icra said on Monday while downgrading the sectoral outlook to "stable" from positive. The rating agency also stated that foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) to India are expected to remain muted in the next few months in the aftermath of the terror attack at Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, but are estimated to witness a gradual recovery thereafter. However, domestic tourism has been the prime demand driver so far and is likely to remain the same in the near term. Factors, including improvement in infrastructure and air connectivity, favourable demographics, and anticipated growth in large-scale MICE events, with the opening of multiple new convention centres in the last few years, will support the growth over the medium term, Icra said. According to the rating agency, the domestic hospitality sector's earnings and credit metrics are expected to remain stable in ..

RBI Policy: Full of surprises, dovish on growth, neutral on further cuts

With inflation expected to rise back to above 4 per cent by Q4-FY26, the Monetary Policy Committee has capitalised upon the available headroom to frontload rate action

Power demand to increase by 6-6.5% over next five years, says ICRA

ICRA attributes the growth in demand to greater adoption of electric vehicles and green hydrogen segments, and the expansion of power-hungry data centres

Small investors in derivatives segment declined 49% after Sebi curbs: Icra

ICRA report shows Sebi's F&O regulations have led to a sharp decline in smaller investor participation, with premium turnover under ₹10,000 falling 49 per cent

Icra projects India's Q4 growth at 6.9%, FY25 GDP expansion at 6.3%

ICRA on Monday projected India's GDP growth at 6.9 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3 per cent for the full 2024-25 fiscal, undershooting the the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February. In February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. With economic growth in June, September and December quarter at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively. To achieve the NSO's projected 6.5 per cent growth in FY25, the GDP growth in Q4 or March quarter should be 7.6 per cent. The NSO is scheduled to release the provisional estimates of FY'25 GDP and quarterly estimates for Q4 on May 30. ICRA in its note said it projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter. Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 FY2025, ICRA projects a sharp

Icra projects India's Q4 growth at 6.9%, FY25 GDP expansion at 6.3%

ICRA on Monday projected India's GDP growth at 6.9 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3 per cent for the full 2024-25 fiscal, undershooting the the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February. In February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. With economic growth in June, September and December quarter at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively. To achieve the NSO's projected 6.5 per cent growth in FY25, the GDP growth in Q4 or March quarter should be 7.6 per cent. The NSO is scheduled to release the provisional estimates of FY'25 GDP and quarterly estimates for Q4 on May 31. ICRA in its note said it projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter. Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 FY2025, ICRA projects a sharp

ICRA expects five co-working segment IPOs raising over ₹7,000 cr by 2026

Rating agency ICRA on Wednesday said that India's co-working segment may witness five maiden public issues in the next 12-18 months to raise more than Rs 7,000 crore. In a statement, ICRA said that India's flexible (flex)/co-working office space portfolio is expected to increase to around 125 million square feet by March 2027 (from around 80 million square feet as of December 2024) for the top six cities (Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi-NCR, Hyderabad, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Pune). "This segment, which has seen one successful initial public offer (IPO) in 2024, is set to witness five major IPOs in the next 12-18 months, which are projected to raise over Rs 7,000 crore," it added. Co-working operator Awfis has already launched its IPO and is listed on the stock exchanges. Smartworks, WeWork India and IndiQube Spaces Ltd have already filed the preliminary documents with markets regulator SEBI to launch their IPOs. Anupama Reddy, Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate ...

Big builders likely to tighten grip as realty mkt consolidates around them

Homebuyers prefer grade-A builders, delivery of homes key accountability factor

US tariff jitters: Auto part exporters may take a Rs 4,500 crore hit

Exporters with manufacturing operations within the US would also be partly insulated from the new tariffs

Auto part makers may lose Rs 4.5K crore due to trade tariffs: Icra

Leading auto component manufacturers could take a revenue hit of up to Rs 4,500 crore in the current fiscal due to dip in overseas shipments stemming from the tariff-related impact, ratings firm Icra said on Monday. Icra expects the revenue growth of Indian auto component industry, represented by sample of 46 auto ancillaries with aggregate annual revenues of over Rs 3 lakh crore in FY2024, to ease to 6-8 per cent in FY2026, against 8-10 per cent projected earlier, if there is mid-to-high single-digit revenue decline in exports to the US, stemming from the tariff-related impact, it said in a statement. The steep increase in import tariffs imposed recently by the US is estimated to burden the entire supply chain with an incremental cost of around Rs 9,000 crore, which will need to be borne by the US consumers, US importers, and Indian exporters, it said. The extent to which the Indian auto component exporters share the cost burden will be contingent on their competitiveness and the .

Engines stalled, planes grounded: ICRA alerts turbulence in Indian aviation

Indian airlines remain grounded by engine problems and labour gaps, with recovery not expected before FY2026, finds credit rating agency ICRA

Borrowers may gain from lower rates under RBI draft co-lending norms: ICRA

RBI has proposed that the blended rate of interest is to be calculated as an average rate of interest derived from the interest rates charged by respective funding regulated entities

Rail sector revenue to grow 5% in FY26, wagon makers drive gains: Icra

The Indian railway sector is expected to see a moderate revenue growth of 5 per cent in FY'26, driven primarily by strong performance from wagon manufacturers, while construction entities in the sector may witness slower growth, an analysis by credit rating agency ICRA said. The report highlights that the weighted average operating margins for the sector will remain healthy at around 12 per cent in FY26, supported by operating leverage benefits and stable input prices. This comes amid sustained government investments in railway infrastructure, with the capital outlay increasing by 130 per cent over the past five years to Rs 2.52 lakh crore in 2025-26 (Budget Estimates), a statement said. However, budgetary support has grown only modestly by 2 per cent between FY2024 and FY2026, indicating a potential slowdown in funding momentum, the rating agency said. Suprio Banerjee, Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, at ICRA, noted that railway sector entities have been key ..

ICRA expects 18-20% growth for airport operators in FY26 on higher traffic

Indian airport operators are expected to see an 18-20 per cent topline year-on-year growth in this fiscal, driven by a sustained improvement in passenger traffic and tariff hike as well as ramp-up in non-aeronautical revenues, ratings agency ICRA said on Thursday. At the same time, ICRA estimates overall air passenger traffic growing at a healthy 7-9 per cent Y-o-Y to reach at 440-450 million in FY26, on the back of an around 10 per cent estimated increase in the just concluded financial year, it said. The overall passenger traffic (domestic and international) is estimated at 412-415 million in FY25, as per ICRA. The ratings agency said its estimation is based on a sample set of airports, including those managed and operated by the Airports Authority of India (AAI), as well as Delhi, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Cochin International Airports, which operate under the public-private partnership (PPP) model. Also, given the capacity bottleneck faced by a few airports, the sector will ...

RBI's growth outlook is optimistic amid global concerns; see 50bps more cut

We expect the GDP growth to print at 6.2 per cent in FY26, marginally below the 6.3 per cent projected by us for FY25, said Aditi Nayar of Icra

Banks may write off stressed loans worth Rs 1.5 trillion in FY26: Icra

Credit growth to expand at 10.8-10.9% on regulatory easing

Regulatory easing to support 10.8% credit growth in FY26: Icra

The incremental credit is likely to rise 10.8 per cent to Rs 19-20.5 lakh crore in the current fiscal compared to Rs 18 lakh crore or a 10.9 per cent growth in 2024-25, according to rating agency Icra. In a release on the Indian banking sector outlook, the agency said it expects the regulatory easing seen in recent months to support a credit expansion of about 10.8 per cent in FY2026. Such measures include the repo rate cut, deferment of proposed changes in the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) framework and additional provisions on infra projects, along with the roll-back of increased risk weights on lending to unsecured consumer credit and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). "Besides this, the durable liquidity infusion by the Reserve Bank of India through open market operations (OMO) by way of purchases of Government bonds and forex swaps with banks, would aid the liquidity and faster transmission of the ongoing cut in policy rates," it said. The persisting challenges in depos