Page 4 - India Gdp Growth

Higher US tariffs may trim India's GDP growth by 30 bps: Barclays

The 25 per cent US tariffs, plus a penalty for Russian imports, could dent India's GDP growth by 30 basis points in the current fiscal, but the higher duty is unlikely to significantly affect India's domestic demand-driven economy, Barclays said on Thursday. If the 25 per cent tariff, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, is implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, as per Barclays estimates. This is sharply higher than both the pre 'liberation day' tariff rate of 2.7 per cent and the 90-day pause tariff rate of 11.6 per cent. In contrast, India's import tariff on US goods is lower, at 11.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms. Barclays said that given the relatively closed nature of the Indian economy, wherein domestic demand is the mainstay of growth. "We do not see this 25 per cent tariff threat impacting GDP growth meaningfully, pegging the likely impact at 30 bp. We expect ..

ADB lowers India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.5%, cites impact of US tariffs

The report said that despite these factors, India's economic activity remains robust, with domestic consumption set to grow strongly on the back of revival of rural demand

Ind-Ra cuts India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% on weak outlook

India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday trimmed India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.3 per cent, citing uncertainties around US tariffs and weak investment climate. Ind-Ra expects GDP in FY26 to grow 6.3 per cent y-o-y, 30bp lower than its earlier forecast of 6.6 per cent made in December 2024. The economy is facing both headwinds and tailwinds, it said in its mid-year economic outlook. "Major headwinds are: i) uncertain global scenario from the unilateral tariff hikes by the US for all countries and ii) weaker-than-expected investment climate. The major tailwinds are: i) monetary easing, ii) faster-than-expected inflation decline, and iii) likely above-normal rainfall in 2025", said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Ind-Ra. The Indian economy had grown at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025) Ind-Ra's projections for FY26 are lower than the 6.5 per cent GDP growth projected by the RBI and the Asian Development Bank .

What could move stock markets in H2 2025? Check outlook, Nifty Dec target

Analysts expect Nifty to rise up to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors

India's economy to hold top spot for growth, but weaknesses remain: Poll

Private sector spending is still trailing far behind, and analysts generally agree the economy is still failing to create enough quality jobs for its large young population

RBI bulletin: India's economic activity 'resilient' amid global flux

Trade policy outcomes in July, after the temporary tariff hiatus is over, and the future course of geopolitical events would likely shape the medium-term economic prospects

S&P ups India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.5% on resilient domestic demand

S&P Global Ratings raises India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.5%, citing normal monsoon, soft oil prices, tax reliefs and monetary easing as key drivers amid global headwinds

S&P ups India's FY26 GDP outlook to 6.5% amid geopolitical instability

S&P raised India's FY26 growth forecast citing strong domestic demand, normal monsoon hopes, lower oil prices, and easing policy - reversing last month's downgrade over global risks

18 growth arenas McKinsey says could fuel India's global rise by 2040

India's 18 future arenas - from EVs and semiconductors to AI and space - could drive 30% of its GDP growth by 2040, making the country a global hub for innovation, tech, and industrial leadership

Icra pegs India's GDP growth at 6.2% for FY26, down from 6.5% in FY25

Leading rating agency ICRA, in its latest outlook, said India's real GDP growth for 2025-26 will be 6.2 per cent, down from 6.5 per cent in the preceding financial year. Real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is also expected to ease to 6 per cent from 6.4 per cent. Regarding inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be above 3.5 per cent, while the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) will be over 1.8 per cent for the current fiscal, the report added. ICRA has forecast the fiscal deficit to be 4.4 per cent of GDP for 2025-26, with the current account deficit projected at 1.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent during the same period. According to ICRA, rural demand is likely to remain upbeat, aided by Rabi cash flows and above-normal reservoir levels. It also said that the combination of the sizeable income tax relief in the Union budget for 2025-26, rate cuts leading to lower EMIs and moderation in food inflation is expected to boost household disposable incomes. The report added that

India's 6.5% GDP growth in FY25 'creditable' amid global headwinds: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran cites policy continuity, PLI success, and external resilience as key factors in India's strong 2024-25 economic performance

CRR cut surprised mkts; RBI may await data before next rate move: Analysts

The policy, according to U R Bhat, co-founder & director, Alphaniti Fintech shows the RBI's confidence in inflation and other macro variables

RBI Policy: Full of surprises, dovish on growth, neutral on further cuts

With inflation expected to rise back to above 4 per cent by Q4-FY26, the Monetary Policy Committee has capitalised upon the available headroom to frontload rate action

RBI policy: MPC cuts repo rate by 50 bps to 5.5%, shifts stance to neutral

RBI Monetary Policy Committee maintained its GDP growth forecast for FY26 at 6.5%, lowered inflation forecast to 3.7%

OECD lowers India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.3%, UBS raises it to 6.4%

The OECD cuts India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.3%, citing risks from rising US tariffs and trade tensions, but expects private consumption to strengthen with rising incomes and moderate inflation

UBS raises India's FY26 GDP forecast to 6.4% after strong Q4 growth

UBS ups India's economic growth outlook on strong Q4 performance, rural demand rebound, easing trade tensions, and low oil prices

Nomura forecasts India's GDP growth to slide from 6.5% to 6.2% in FY26

India's real GDP growth in FY26 will slide further to 6.2 per cent in FY26 from 6.5 per cent in FY25, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. In a research report, Nomura said there is a "divergence" between the growth in GST collections and across other high-frequency growth indicators like auto sales and bank credit growth. As per the official data released last week, the real GDP growth came down to 6.5 per cent in FY25 from 9.2 per cent in FY24. The RBI sees growth sustaining at 6.5 per cent, the official data showed. "Our baseline view assumes GDP growth moderates to 6.2 per cent in FY26 from 6.5 per cent in FY25," Nomura said in its report. The Japanese brokerage revised its March 2026 Nifty target to 26,140 points, up from the previous level of 24,970 points, on the macroeconomic trends and also sought to temper concerns on valuations. "The Indian equity markets have been resilient in the recent past despite corporate earnings estimate cuts and global uncertainties," Nomura .

Best of BS Opinion: India must heed the warning signs from without

India's economy and technological prowess are on a steady path, but it faces external challenges in the form of both policies and nations

The rebound: Consumption picks up in FY25 on rural demand, shows NSO data

Dharmakriti Joshi, chief economist, Crisil says that consumption growth outpaced GDP, primarily driven by robust rural demand supported by a strong agricultural sector.

India's growth momentum to continue in Q1 of FY26: CEA Nageswaran

CEA Nageswaran says India may grow 6.3-6.8% in FY26, led by consumption and services exports, with momentum from Q4FY25 continuing into Q1FY26