India's Growth Projection

IMF raises India's GDP growth projection by 20 bps to 6.4% for FY26

IMF revises India's FY26 GDP growth to 6.4%, citing a favourable external environment; global growth also projected higher for 2025 and 2026

Moody's cuts India's GDP forecast to 6.3% in 2025 on US trade uncertainty

Moody's Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, from 6.5 per cent, saying economies globally will see a slowdown on account of heightened US policy uncertainty and trade restrictions. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26 (May update), Moody's said geopolitical stresses, like tension between India and Pakistan, also have a potential downside risk to its baseline growth forecasts. Costs to investors and businesses are likely to rise as they factor in new geopolitical configurations when deciding where to invest, expand, and/or source goods, Moody's said. Moody's cut India's growth projections to 6.3 per cent for 2025 calendar year, but retained it at 6.5 per cent for 2026. This compares with a 6.7 per cent growth in 2024. Moody's expects the Reserve Bank of India to lower benchmark policy rates further to support growth. "Economic growth was already set to slow this year back to its potential rate. We lowered our global growth projections for 202

HUDCO raises $200 mn from overseas lenders for its foray into loan market

Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO) has raised USD 200 million (JPY 30 billion) in its maiden foray into the syndicated loan market, its arranger said on Tuesday. The state-run body has raised the five-year money as part of its inaugural "social loan", Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) said. The deal, led by SMBC's Singapore branch, saw an oversubscription with a total of nine lenders, and was upsized from its original launch size of JPY 15 billion to JPY 30 billion after exercising the greenshoe option, an official statement said. The inaugural social loan will enable further expansion of HUDCO's social housing platform to improve the quality of life for the Indian community and enhance infrastructure facilities in urban areas, the statement said. SMBC acted as the sole mandated lead arranger, book runner and social loan coordinator. "We look forward to expanding our reach to the underserved communities and strengthening the local community's access

Moody's ups India's growth projection for 2023 to 5.5% on higher capex

Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022. "In the case of India, the upward revisions additionally incorporate the sharp increase in capital expenditure budget allocation to Rs 10 trillion (3.3 per cent of GDP) for fiscal year 2023-24, up from Rs 7.5 trillion for the fiscal year ending in March 2023," Moody's said while projecting a 70 basis points increase in 2023 real GDP growth at 5.5 per cent an

Eco Survey projects FY24 GDP growth at 6-6.8%, sees investments picking up

Commodity prices will raise total import bill and add to unfavourable developments in current account balance, it says

Crisil, Icra revise India's growth projections for FY23, Q2 GDP slashed

Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity. This will test the resilience of domestic demand," Crisil chief economist Dharmakirti Joshi said in a note. Aditi Nayar, his counterpart at Icra, in her report pencilled a 6.5 per cent growth in Q2 of the current fiscal, nearly half of the year-ago quarter when the economy had clipped at 12.7 per cent, but which is still a tad higher than the monetary policy committee's Septembe

IMF cuts India's FY23 GDP forecast to 6.8%, flags global inflation crisis

Slashes it by 60 bps; says worst yet to come for world

Morgan Stanley cuts India's FY23 growth forecast to 7.6%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised downwards its growth projection for FY23 to 7.2 per cent from 7.8 per cent earlier

RBI revises inflation and growth forecasts; holds policy rates

In its first monetary policy announcement of 2022-23, the RBI projected inflation to be at 5.7 per cent this financial year. Real GDP growth for the year estimated at 7.2 per cent

ADB trims India's FY22 growth forecast to 10% on second wave impact

Downward revision stems from India's economic recovery getting impacted due to spike in Covid-19 cases in May, the agency said

OECD trims India's economic growth forecast to 9.7% for FY22

If the projections come out to be correct, India's economy would be the fastest growing large economy in both these years

Growth optimism: Will govt's own investment and exports be enough?

A step jump in medium-term growth rates, of the kind projected, needs all four engines of the economy to be firing. But the govt seems to have bet on just two, writes T N Ninan

SBI Research ups projections for economy, narrows GDP contraction to 7.4%

Deloitte says recovery depends on vaccine, spread of Covid cases

World Bank ups FY21 GDP contraction forecast for India to 9.6%

Says Indian economy could fare thrice as poorly as projected earlier in the wake of coronavirus-induced lockdowns and a decline in household income

Downward revision of growth projections shows inadequate stimulus: EY

EY's current assessment of India's 2020-21 real gross value added (GVA) growth is 1.9 per cent provided that India sticks to its infrastructure funding plans.

Fitch slashes India's growth projection from 9.5% to 8% for FY22

It retained its projection of Indian economy contracting by 5 per cent in the current fiscal

UN lowers India growth rate projection to 1.2% in 2020, to recover in 2021

India's economic growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2020, a further deterioration from the already slowed growth of 4.1 per cent in 2019

'Covid-19 hangs over future like spectre': RBI in Monetary Policy Report

While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, Covid-19 would impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown, the central bank has said