Growth optimism: Will govt's own investment and exports be enough?

A step jump in medium-term growth rates, of the kind projected, needs all four engines of the economy to be firing. But the govt seems to have bet on just two, writes T N Ninan

Growth forecasts for the Indian economy have converged at optimistic levels. The recovery this year is pegged at a range between 8.3 per cent (World Bank) and 10.5 per cent (the government), with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in between, at 9.5 per cent. Sundry economists at investment banks also have their forecasts in the mid-range. These recovery-year numbers, taken with the pandemic-driven drop in GDP last year of 7.3 per cent, yield an annual growth rate of about 1 per cent. That compares marginally unfavourably with global GDP performance in these two years, and with the performance of emerging