Muted volumes, declining coal prices and e-auction realisations, competition from private miners and stake sale overhang to weaken sentiment
The Nifty is trading at a P/E over 23 - well above the discount for 15% EPS growth
Ongoing consolidation to benefit the sector over the long run
Mergers of govt entities are handicapped by constraints. A post-merger strategy is important
Also, the operating style of PSBs needs to be changed; else, there are dangers of a banking crisis
However, domestic consumption will determine the success or failure of the Budget
Earnings, anecdotal reports from various sectors more likely to confirm negative viewpoint
Park money in short-term funds to buy shares on sharp corrections
And, there are far too many as we head into the new year
Bargains will be available if investors wait for a while and are ready to take big risks
Rupee could weaken if the govt takes accommodative action to aid growth
These should give a good sense of when the economy bottoms out
Invest in stocks of export-oriented and capital-intensive companies'
Longer investment horizon reduces risk and volatility
We could see a dip, followed by a recovery over two years
Positives like room for earnings acceleration and comfortable liquidity could sustain valuations
High valuations are riding on liquidity. A bear market can be triggered if the US Fed raises rates
But, threats of supply disruption do remain and that could hurt India, given its import dependence
Many fund managers are betting on higher tourism flow and manufacturing in mid-cap space
Investors cannot afford to ignore the disruption that will impact a wide range of sectors