Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports shocked global edible oils markets that already reached record high prices this year, and sparked alarm among major importers of the cooking medium.
Instead of a recovery in gross margins in fiscal 2022-23 (FY23), Jefferies now builds-in 50-200 basis point (bps) YoY decline, assuming crude stays closer to $100 a barrel and palm oil at $1,500/MT
Palm oil's record premium over rival oils could squeeze price-sensitive Asian and African consumers already reeling from spiralling fuel and food costs, and force them to curtail consumption and shift
Widely used in edible oil blending, cosmetics, processed food products, palm oil's prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is considered to be the global benchmark among trade circles
The government has reduced the basic customs duty on refined palm oil to 12.5 per cent from 17.5 per cent till March next year to boost supplies and bring down rates in domestic retail markets
Higher purchases by India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could support palm oil prices that are trading near a record high hit earlier this week.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market
If it does, benchmark palm oil prices are likely to jump to as high as 4,000 ringgit per tonne in January
Refiners have been slashing palm oil imports for winter
India is heavily dependent on imported edible oils. Of the total 15 million tonnes of import, about 9 million tonnes (or nearly 60 per cent) is of palm oils
The newly appointed MPOB Chairman Ahmad Jazlan Yaakub said in a statement the rally will come as a relief to industry participants
A restart to buying by India, the world's biggest edible oil importer, could further support Malaysian palm oil prices, which have edged up from 10-month lows in recent days
Last month, India restricted imports of refined palm oil and asked importers to avoid purchases from Malaysia after its criticism of India's actions in Kashmir and a new citizenship law
Curbs on Malaysian palm oil import present a good opportunity
The first decline in three months of growing purchases by India, the world's biggest importer, may boost inventories in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia
Malaysia is the world's second largest producer and exporter of palm oil after Indonesia, and the edible oil contributed to 2.8% of its gross domestic product last year
Data released by a state millers association earlier this week showed slower output growth for the first 20 days of August compared with a month earlier
Malaysian exports of refined palm oil to India, the world's biggest importer of edible oils, jumped 727% in the first half of 2019 to 1.57 million tonnes compared with the same period a year before
Although the market was earlier down, another futures trader had said it could firm up as palm oil export data so far showed rising demand
Oil for delivery in this month gained Rs 16.30, or 2.99%