The Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut key policy rates by 25 bps in the upcoming monetary policy meeting amid subdued domestic industrial activity and slowdown in trade on the global front, says a report. According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest economy forecast, the trade tensions between the US and other countries will have ramifications on emerging economies like India. "While the upside risks to inflation are currently from the monsoon, reversal in food prices and further rise in oil prices warrant a 'wait and watch' policy mode, the slowdown in the growth momentum is likely to weigh upon the monetary policy decision," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said. D&B expects a 25-bps rate cut in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meet early next month. The MPC, which decides on key interest rates, will hold a meeting on June 3, 4 and 6. According to the report, on the domestic front, subdued industrial activity and uncertainty on trade will add to the .
The central bank is slated to announce its next bi-monthly policy decision on June 6
RBI had cut interest rate by 25 basis points each in February and April to boost economic growth
The composition and terms of reference of the committee would be announced shortly and the report would be out by the end of August
Deputy Governor Viral Acharya and external member Chetan Ghate voted against a rate cut, while Ravindra Dholakia favoured a change in stance to "accommodative"
Amid dismal deposit growth, banks have not been able to pass on benefits of the earlier rate cuts to borrowers, impacting economic growth
RBI does its bit to boost economic activity
"It is the right of any person - individual or legal corporate entity - to challenge the decision of any authority in the court of law. The RBI cannot be an exception to this"
As far as future rate cuts are concerned, we expect one more 25 basis points rate cut in this cycle
Investors may also spread their investments across several non-convertible debentures, currently promising upward of 9 per cent annually
The central bank has been pushing banks to link lending rates to external benchmarks as the latter were not adequately passing on rate cut benefits to borrowers
As per the current medium-term fiscal policy, which is part of the 2019-20 interim budget, the fiscal deficit target for 2019-20 is 3.4%, and 3% for both 2020-21 and 2021-22
Probably in August. We can argue whether RBI is dovishly neutral or neutrally dovish but the telltale signs of at least one more rate cut are strewn all over the policy statement
Despite the fact that the RBI has now cut the repo rate by 50bps since August 2018, it is clear that the cost of funding for the broader economy seems to be trending upwards
The Reserve Bank may have a more optimistic view on inflation for the year even, though it has also recognised the risk factors
Besides a normal monsoon, the inflation path, according to the RBI, will be shaped by five factors
Beyond the near term, several uncertainties cloud the inflation outlook, said RBI
It was the first back-to-back rate cut by the central bank since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was formed in late 2016.
Inflation has remained below the RBI's 4% target for seven straight months
The economy needs to have grown just above 6% in the January-March quarter to meet the government's estimate of 7% expansion for the 2019 fiscal year that ended on March 31