Page 2 - Us Economy

US government shutdown delays release of crucial inflation figures

The government shutdown is delaying another major economic report, leaving policymakers at the Federal Reserve with a cloudier picture even as the economy enters a challenging phase of stubbornly persistent inflation and a sharp slowdown in hiring. The Labour Department's monthly inflation data was scheduled for release Wednesday, but late last week was postponed until October 24. The department is recalling some employees to assemble the data, which was collected before the shutdown began. The figures are needed for the government to calculate the annual cost of living adjustment for tens of millions of recipients of benefit programmes such as Social Security. The shutdown could make things worse for agencies like the Fed if it continues, because government agencies cannot collect the raw data that are then compiled into the monthly reports on jobs, inflation, and other economic trends. The September employment report, for example, which was due to be released October 3 but was no

IMF more upbeat about US growth, but outlook dimmer than last year

The US and global economies will grow a bit more this year than previously forecast as the Trump administration's tariffs have so far proved less disruptive than expected, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, though the agency also said the extensive duties still pose risks. The United States' economy will expand 2 per cent in 2025, the IMF projected in its influential semiannual forecast, the World Economic Outlook. That is slightly higher than the 1.9 per cent forecast in the IMF's last update in July and 1.8 per cent in April. The US should grow 2.1 per cent next year, also just one-tenth of a per cent faster than its previous projection, the IMF said. Its current forecasts are still down from a year ago, however, a sign that the international lending agency expects the tariffs to weaken the US economy, in part by creating more uncertainty for businesses. Last October, the IMF forecast the US would grow 2.2 per cent this year. All the projections also represent a ...

Lack of jobs data due to govt shutdown muddies view of hiring, US economy

From Wall Street trading floors to the Federal Reserve to economists sipping coffee in their home offices, the first Friday morning of the month typically brings a quiet hush around 8:30 am eastern as everyone awaits the Labor Department's crucial monthly jobs report. But with the government shut down, no information was released Friday about hiring in September. The interruption in the data has occurred at a particularly uncertain time, when policymakers at the Federal Reserve and Wall Street investors would need more data on the economy, rather than less. Hiring has ground nearly to a halt, threatening to drag down the broader economy. Yet at the same time, consumers particularly higher-income earners are still spending and some businesses are ramping up investments in data centres developing artificial intelligence models. Whether that is enough to revive hiring remains to be seen. It's the first time since a government shutdown in 2013 that the jobs report has been delayed. .

$100K H-1B visa fee could hurt key sectors: US business groups warn Trump

Industry groups have warned the Trump administration that the $100,000 H-1B fee could block foreign skilled workers, affecting tech, healthcare, and other critical sectors across the US economy

US economy shows surprising 3.8% growth rate after major revision of Q2 GDP

The US economy expanded at a surprising 3.8 per cent from April through June, the government reported in a dramatic upgrade of its previous estimate of second-quarter growth. US gross domestic product the nation's output of goods and services rebounded in the spring from a 0.6 per cent first-quarter drop caused by fallout from President Donald Trump's trade wars, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The department had previously estimated second-quarter growth at 3.3 per cent. The first-quarter GDP drop, the first retreat of the US economy in three years, was mainly caused by a surge in imports which are subtracted from GDP as businesses hurried to bring in foreign goods before Trump could impose sweeping taxes on them. That trend reversed as expected in the second quarter: Imports fell at a 29.3 per cent pace, boosting April-June growth by more than 5 percentage points. Consumer spending rose at a 2.5 per cent pace, up from 0.6 per cent in the first quarter and well above the

The US Fed's wrong move: Rate cuts risk fuelling inflation rebound

The Fed's estimate of the neutral rate is wrong. To adequately slow demand, the Fed appears to need the policy rate to be above 4 per cent

Fed cuts rates 25 bps but inflation risks keep investors on edge

Some investors are now less certain that a rapid shift to lower borrowing costs will materialize, potentially dampening optimism that stocks and bonds would get a strong lift from easier policy

US jobless claims fall to 231,000 after recent surge to 4-year high

The number of Americans applying for jobless aid last week retreated significantly after surging to a nearly four-year high a week earlier. US filings for unemployment benefits for the week ending September 13 fell by 33,000 to 231,000, the Labour Department reported Thursday. That's less than the 241,000 analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet had forecast. The previous week, applications surged to 264,000, their highest level since the week of October 23, 2021. Last week's figure was revised up by 1,000. Concerns about the health of the American labour market led the Federal Reserve to cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday as many expected. The rate cut is a sign that the central bank's focus has shifted quickly from inflation to jobs as hiring has grounded nearly to a halt in recent months. Lower interest rates could reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business loans, and boost growth and hiring. The problem is that it can also exacerbate

US Fed slashes rates by 25 bps, expects steady pace of cuts coming

Only new Governor Stephen Miran, who joined the Fed on Tuesday and is on leave as the head of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, dissented in favor of a half-percentage-point cut

US retail sales rise strongly; softening labour market a headwind

The third straight month of solid gains in sales reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday is unlikely to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates on Wednesday

Additional rate cuts may offer diminishing returns: Vetri Subramaniam

SIP investors must diversify across market caps, with largecaps better for lump-sum bets amid high mid-smallcap valuations, says Subramaniam

US payroll data marked down a record 911,000 in preliminary estimate

The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by a record 911,000, or 0.6%, according to the government's preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday

US likely added modest 80K jobs in August, sign of cooling labour market

When the Labour Department put out a disappointing jobs report a month ago, an enraged President Donald Trump responded by firing the economist in charge of compiling the numbers and nominating a loyalist to replace her. Nothing quite so dramatic is likely Friday when the department releases hiring and unemployment numbers for August. They are expected to show that companies, government agencies and nonprofits added a modest 80,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. That would be a slight improvement on July's 73,000 but still offer more evidence that the American job market has cooled significantly from last year. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at a low 4.2 per cent suggesting that employers are stuck in a no-hire, no-fire mode: They are reluctant to add many new workers but don't want to give up the ones they have. But there are signs they may be starting to cut staff. The US job market has lost momentum this year, partly .

50% US tariffs kick in from Wednesday: Shrimp crimp for sellers, consumers

A 50% import duty has slashed farm-gate shrimp prices in India while pushing up consumer prices in the United States

Markets eye US inflation, Powell's warning and key global data flow

Investors will monitor comments from Fed officials at public events in the coming week to gauge their appetite for a September rate cut

Trump's assault on institutions will be a litmus test of their importance

Do institutions matter? Donald Trump's sustained assault on them will give us an answer

This round of American exceptionalism is mediocre at best, despite rebound

A lazy interpretation is that critics were simply wrong about the Trump agenda

Trump tariffs get seal of approval as S&P affirms AA+ credit rating

The decision offers a glimmer of good news for Trump, who has pushed back against arguments that his historic program of tariffs will damage the US economy

Bessent urges Federal Reserve to lower rates by 150 basis points or more

Fed policymakers kept their benchmark at a target range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent at their last policy meeting

Trump says he may allow lawsuit against Fed chief Powell over renovations

Trump in a social media post on Tuesday resumed his criticism of the Fed chair over the central bank's decision to hold interest rates steady and again hammered Powell over the renovation work