Is AfD's historic win in Germany an indication of rise of the far right?

Founded in 2013 as a euro-sceptic party, the AfD has moved sharply right on migration and national identity, turning anger over immigration, economic strain and mainstream politics into votes

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won a state election for the first time, raising questions about the country's political firewall against the far right. The victory came in Saxony-Anhalt, a state in eastern Germany, where the AfD secured 43.8 per cent of the vote. That makes the result particularly significant in a country where the legacy of Adolf Hitler's Nazi regime has made the far right politically taboo for decades. Founded in 2013, the AfD has since moved from being a eurosceptic party to a major nationalist and anti-immigration force. How did it rise, why does Germany remain so wary of the far right, and what does its latest win mean for Germany and Europe?

 

What happened in Saxony-Anhalt?

The AfD won 39 of the state parliament's 83 seats, leaving it three short of the 42 needed for an outright majority. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), meanwhile, finished a distant second with 17.2 per cent of the vote. Turnout was 77.8 per cent, the highest recorded in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt, a state of 2.1 million people.

 

So, while the AfD has won the election, it cannot form a government on its own. Germany's mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD, leaving the party without an obvious route to power. The BSW, a left-wing populist party also crossed the 5 per cent threshold and could therefore have a role in the coalition arithmetic.

 

But the result means more than just a big electoral win. As The New York Times pointed out, Germany's shift to the right is different from that seen in many other European countries because of its Nazi past. For almost eight decades, Germany's mainstream parties have kept the far right outside government, wary of giving political power to forces that could undermine its democratic system.

What is the AfD?

The AfD started largely as a eurosceptic party, opposed to the euro and the way European governments were dealing with the eurozone debt crisis. From around 2014, however, its focus began to shift, with immigration and asylum becoming increasingly important to its politics.

 

The turning point came in 2015, when Germany took in large numbers of refugees and migrants, many fleeing the war in Syria. Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to allow large numbers of refugees into the country triggered a fierce political debate. The AfD tapped into the anger over the policy and used immigration to broaden its appeal as a party challenging Germany's political establishment.

 

The strategy helped the party break into the Bundestag, Germany's national parliament, in 2017, when it won 12.6 per cent of the vote. Its support has grown since then. In the 2025 federal election, the AfD secured 20.8 per cent, up from 10.4 per cent in 2021, making it the second-largest party in parliament.

 

Today, the party takes a hard line on immigration and asylum and promotes German nationalism. It is also critical of deeper European integration and has taken a more conciliatory position towards Russia than Germany's mainstream parties. In Saxony-Anhalt, its campaign has focused on tighter controls on migration and deportations, as well as changes to education and cultural policies.

 

This evolution is why the AfD is now generally described as a far-right or radical-right party rather than simply a conservative one.

 

In May 2025, Germany's Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), which monitors threats to the country's democratic order, classified the AfD at the national level as a "confirmed right-wing extremist" organisation. The party challenged the classification in court. In February 2026, the Cologne Administrative Court temporarily barred the BfV from treating or publicly describing the national AfD as a confirmed extremist organisation while the case is being decided. The AfD remains a legal political party, and the court has not yet issued a final ruling.

Why does Germany react differently to the far right?

Germany's deep suspicion of the far right comes from its own history. After the political and economic turmoil that followed World War I, Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party rose to power. Hitler became chancellor in 1933 and quickly dismantled Germany's democracy, turning the country into a dictatorship. The Nazi regime's racist and antisemitic ideology led to the Holocaust, in which six million Jews were murdered, and to a war that killed tens of millions.

 

After 1945, West Germany built safeguards into its new democratic system to prevent such a collapse from happening again. The 1949 Basic Law allows extremist parties that seek to undermine Germany's democratic order to be banned.

 

This history also explains Germany's political “firewall” against the far right. Mainstream parties have traditionally refused to form coalitions with extremist parties. Far-right groups have existed in Germany since the war, but remained on the political margins. The AfD is different because it has grown into a major electoral force.

Why is the AfD rising now?

Migration has been central, particularly since the 2015 refugee crisis. The party has turned concerns about immigration into a broader argument about national identity, security and the ability of the state to provide services.

 

Economic frustration has added to its appeal. Germany has endured weak growth, high energy costs and pressure on its manufacturing base. These concerns are particularly pronounced in eastern Germany, where the AfD has traditionally been strongest. Reuters' reporting from Saxony-Anhalt found that economic stagnation, living costs and frustration with mainstream parties were among the factors driving support for the AfD.

 

At the same time, Germany's established parties have struggled to retain voters. The AfD has benefited by positioning itself as an outsider willing to challenge the political establishment. Its support is no longer limited to eastern Germany, as its 20.8 per cent in the 2025 federal election and strong performance in western Germany show.

Germany is not alone in shifting right

Germany is not alone. Across Europe, parties on the radical right have moved from the political margins into the mainstream. Italy is governed by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, while Austria's Freedom Party became the country's largest party in the 2024 election and later entered government. France's National Rally has also become a major political force.

 

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) noted in 2025 that radical-right parties were already in government in six EU countries (Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Finland, Croatia, and Czechia / Czech Republic) and were either leading polls or close to power in several others.

 

According to media reports, their rise has been fuelled by a mix of concerns over migration, inflation, weak economic growth, energy security, the war in Ukraine and growing distrust of established political parties. The radical right has been effective at bringing these concerns together under a broader message of national identity and greater control over borders and domestic affairs.

 

But Europe's right-wing parties are not all the same. Some are strongly pro-EU while others want to weaken the bloc's powers. Their positions on Russia and Ukraine also differ, as do their economic policies. What they share is a growing ability to turn voter frustration into political support.

Why does the Saxony-Anhalt result matter?

The immediate consequence is limited because the AfD does not have a majority and other parties can still prevent it from forming a government. However, the political significance is much larger.

 

First, the result shows that the AfD can win an election rather than merely protest against the established parties. Its 43.8 per cent vote share is its strongest performance in a German state election and more than twice its 2021 result.

 

Second, it puts the political firewall under unprecedented pressure. The question is no longer simply whether mainstream parties will refuse to work with the AfD. It is whether that refusal can remain politically sustainable as the AfD becomes larger and more deeply rooted in the electorate.

 

The New York Times has framed the issue as a test of a decades-old German strategy for keeping extremists away from power. Its analysis also places the Saxony-Anhalt result in the wider European context, arguing that the German vote could provide momentum to right-wing parties elsewhere ahead of elections in countries such as France.

 

Third, the result matters for Germany's position in Europe. The AfD is more sceptical of deeper European integration, takes a substantially different position on Russia and Ukraine from the mainstream parties, and wants a much harder line on immigration. A stronger AfD therefore changes not only Germany's domestic political debate but also the range of positions that Berlin's established parties must respond to.